March 28, 2007


Too Late? (Lisa Fabrizio, 3/28/2007, American Spectator)

[T]his week, I saw an interesting thing happen. As dubiously as I normally regard polling data, the latest from Rasmussen -- its first national telephone survey involving Thompson -- may be highly instructive. The results show that without even the brim of his hat in the ring, he already leads Hillary Clinton by a percentage point.

True, it also has him trailing Barack Obama by 12%, but the bad news for Obama is that although he has a robust 54% favorability rating, he has a 36% unfavorable mark, which means that only 10% of those polled are left with no opinion of him. Likewise, only two percent are undecided about Mrs. Clinton; not surprising since she's been in the national spotlight for nearly 15 years. And while Rudy -- with a 66% favorability rating -- beats both of them head to head poll-wise, only a slim five percent of those polled had no opinion of him.

In other words, with nine months to go before the first primaries kick off, most folks have their minds made up about the front-runners. On the other hand, according to the poll Thompson shows a 36% favorable and only a 23% unfavorable number meaning that he's got a potential 41% of the folks to win over. Should his Reagan-like affability and common sense values appeal to say, even half of them, we've got ourselves a horse-race with a real conservative entry in it.

Posted by Orrin Judd at March 28, 2007 12:00 AM

People are looking for a candidate that can bring security and victory more than anything else. Rudy has credibility on that - not just for his actions on 9/11, but his role in reducing crime in NY. He has proven results and executive experience.

People will overlook a lot of weirdness if they think Rudy is superior on defense issues above the other candidates for the same reason Lincoln was willing to overlook Grant's drinking.

Rudy has less problems on social issues than you think. All he needs to tell the GOP is that compromise on social issues was the only way for any Republican to be elected in New York City. If throws a bone to the social conservatives by promising to let Congressional Republicans lead on that regard while he wins the war (and nominates a socially conservative VP), he can neutralize the issue.

Posted by: Chris Durnell at March 28, 2007 2:16 PM

He can't run in IA or win SC and McCain is popular in NH. Rudy won't even run.

Posted by: oj at March 28, 2007 4:45 PM

Rodger Chris. El Caudillo plus Fred is even better than Fred plus El Caudillo, although either would be fine.

Pro-gun and anti-Kindermord people can handle the wierdness with a few mild assurances, and the wierdness brings in a lot of the center. The important thing is the ruthlessness.

Posted by: Lou Gots at March 28, 2007 7:56 PM