February 27, 2007

IT'S JUST A QUESTION OF HOW BIG A MARGIN:

Presidential Predicting: The good news for Republicans. (Bruce Bartlett, 2/27/07, National Review)

[L]et's first look at which states voted for George W. Bush in both 2000 and 2004, and those that went for both Al Gore and John Kerry. This will give us a good guide to each party's base.

Starting with Bush, we see that he carried all of these states twice: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming. They have 274 electoral votes, with 270 needed to win.

Gore and Kerry carried all of these states: California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin. These have 248 electoral votes.

In 2000, Iowa and New Mexico went for Gore and switched to Bush in 2004. New Hampshire went for Bush in 2000, but went for Kerry in 2004. These three states are the only ones that changed party, and the vote shift was very small. In 2000, Gore won Iowa with 48.54 percent of the vote to 48.22 percent for Bush; in 2004, Bush won the state with 49.9 percent to Kerry's 49.23 percent.

A similar story is told in New Hampshire and New Mexico. Bush carried the Granite State with 48.07 percent of the vote to 46.8 percent for Gore in 2000; in 2004, Kerry got 50.24 percent to 48.87 percent for Bush. New Mexico gave Gore 47.91 percent of the vote in 2000 to Bush's 47.85 percent. In 2004, Bush took the Land of Enchantment with 49.84 percent to 49.05 percent for Kerry.


Not only can both Senator McCain and the Mayor carry NH and NM but they'd even be competitive enough in CA to tie down the Democratic nominee.

Posted by Orrin Judd at February 27, 2007 4:00 PM
Comments

All of this analysis is fine, but many things can happen. Does a recession hurt Dems or Reps?

Does the Kennedy/McCain bill signed by Bush with no enforcment or border security trigger a 3rd party run? If so, does it pul equally from both parties.

Conventional wisdom is to bet on Rs. But we all know just how useful conventional wisdom is.

Posted by: Bruno at February 27, 2007 11:43 PM

So Bush carried 29 states twice, which total 274 electoral votes. After the 2010 Census, how many electoral votes will those 29 states have?

Posted by: andrew at February 28, 2007 12:21 AM

Issues don't generally matter much in presidential elections. We're in a Republican epoch.

Posted by: oj at February 28, 2007 7:59 AM

Andrew:

277, if this and my math are correct.

Posted by: Mike Earl at February 28, 2007 1:33 PM

Actually, I misread the article; it's closer to 280.

Posted by: Mike Earl at February 28, 2007 1:36 PM
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