DISESTABLISHMENTARIANISM:

Former Revolutionary Talks About Parting Ways With Theocracy (Golnaz Esfandiari, February 9, 2007, RFE/RL)

For some, recalling the fall of the shah and the birth of the Islamic republic in 1979 is an occasion to celebrate and show support for the country's Islamic establishment. For others -- like Mohsen Sazegara, a former acolyte turned establishment critic -- the anniversary is a reminder of dashed dreams and hopes. [...]

In the early years after the revolution, Sazegara helped form Iran's paramilitary Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC). He was also involved in shaping official radio broadcasts and held several government posts, including deputy minister for heavy industry.

Sazegara, and others, became disillusioned by unmet expectations. He began questioning the clerical establishment and one of its key bodies: the powerful Guardians Council, which has the power to vet laws approved by the parliament.

Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini arriving in Tehran from his French exile on February 1, 1979 (Fars)"The beginning was in 1985, when I became into conflict with the Guardians Council over the budget law," Sazegara says. "In a toughly worded letter, I wrote to the then minister of heavy industry that the behavior of this body was not appropriate."

Yet a decisive moment came when he landed in Tehran's notorious Evin prison over differences with the country's judiciary. [...]

Twenty-eight years after Iran's revolution, Sazegara says he has come to the conclusion that revolutions do not bring democracy. The former revolutionary says "a violent revolution" is more likely to bring "a despotic regime." [...]

He now supports democratic paths to change in Iran, including through a nationwide referendum.

"We have no other choice than to hold a [referendum] under the supervision of international organizations, so that we will be able to ask the people whether they want the Islamic establishment or not," he says. "Of course, talking about it is easy; but bringing it into practice is difficult."

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Ahmadinejad's Achilles Heel: The Iranian Economy (Abbas Bakhtiar, January 26, 2007, Al-Jazeerah)

These days Mr. Ahmadinejad, the man the West loves to hate, is in hot waters in Iran. He is blamed for almost everything that has gone wrong with Iran. Iranian newspapers and politicians of all colours are lining-up to criticize his leadership and economic policies. He is blamed for everything from shortage of dialysis machines in some clinics to high inflation and provocative speeches. Some politicians are even talking about impeaching not only some of his ministers, but also the president himself.

What a difference a year makes. It was in mid 2005 that Ahmadinejad won a land-slide victory (62%) in the presidential election. As a presidential candidate he had promised to improve the lives of the poor and the lower classes by "putting petroleum income on people's tables". His campaign motto was "it is possible and we can do it".

Son of a blacksmith, Ahmadinejad was the fourth child of a working class family with seven children. He was brought up in the rough and poor neighbourhoods of south Tehran. He is therefore familiar with the problems facing the poor families and has tried to fulfil his election promises to them by increasing the minimum wage (under pressure was later reversed), the pensions, consumer loans for low-income families, loans for small enterprises in underdeveloped regions, and other popular projects. He has also been travelling around the country approving construction projects and distributing largesse.

This lavish spending has increased the double digit inflation rate even more and has caused concerns among politicians and economists that his economic policies coupled with his hard-line stance on nuclear dispute and approach to foreign policy may damage the country. Some economists argue that while the country's economy is being pressured externally (sanctions), the government is spending money as though there were abundance of resources.

The Iranian senior economist Dr. Masoud Nili of Iran International points to an ever expanding government budget and increasing dependence on the oil revenues as a serious problem for the country. He argues that:

"in 1998, average oil price stood at 10.8 dollars per barrel and oil revenues grew fourfold in about 7 years. Meanwhile, state budget in 1998 was less than 71,000 billion rials, but Iran's budget for 2006 has been estimated at 600,000 billion rials; that is, while oil revenues have quadrupled over a 7-year period, state budget has increased eightfold during the same period.

Before 2002, government spent an average of 15 billion dollars in foreign exchange. The figure increased to 21 billion dollars in 2003, to 30 billion dollars in 2004, and to 36 billion dollars in 2005. It seems that the figure will reach 45 billion dollars in 2006, which is indicative of serious budgetary dependence on petrodollars.

The Third Economic Development Plan aimed at reducing government's dependence on oil revenues to less than 12 billion dollars, but it actually soared to more than 40 billion dollars in 2006. Therefore, the government's budget experienced such a great leap in 14 months from January 2005 to march 2006, when the government was determined to offer Majlis with a budget supplement. Considering this reality, one can conclude that the country witnessed one of its biggest financial developments in the Iranian year, 1385."

As inflation is rapidly approaching critical levels, economists and politicians have began to sound the alarms. There are now open calls for impeachment of several government ministers and although not openly mentioned, the moderates and some conservatives would like nothing more than impeaching the president himself. The rallying cry for the opposition is "the economy"; a clever point of attack since they know that no president no matter how wise or prudent, can solve the existing economic problems of Iran without a comprehensive restructuring of the economy; something that many special interest groups and powerful economic entities are against. The following are some of the problems facing Iran.