February 28, 2007

DEMOCRATS JUST NEED TO NOMINATE A CONSERVATIVE CHRISTIAN:

Democrats Need W.Va., Ark. to Swing Back Their Way (David Mark, February 27, 2007, Politico)

West Virginia and Arkansas may be the most unnatural states to have twice backed President Bush. [...]

West Virginia, with its five electoral votes, and Arkansas, with its six, represent the sort of states a Democratic candidate would need to win for the party to regain the White House. As Democratic strategists survey the national political landscape more than 20 months before the November 2008 election, West Virginia and Arkansas are at the top of states that must be pried away from Republicans.

The key to victory there, analysts suggest, is in trotting out a candidate who would appeal to those states' largely rural constituencies, while maintaining support from Democratic coastal elites. That's the sort of political balancing act President Bill Clinton executed in his 1992 and 1996 victories, which included support from several Southern states.

"If the Democrats present a candidate who can have some personal or cultural affinity, at least on a limited basis, in states like West Virginia and Arkansas, they can carry it," said Al Cross, director of the Institute for Rural Journalism and Community Issues and a longtime observer of Southern politics as a columnist for the Courier-Journal of Louisville, Ky.

West Virginia has proved a vexing electoral problem for Democrats in the past two presidential elections. In 2000, voters there backed Bush over Al Gore 52 percent to 46 percent, and gave the incumbent president an even more comfortable margin of victory, 56 percent to 43 percent, in his reelection win over John F. Kerry.


Cultural affinity is just another name for common religion.

Posted by Orrin Judd at February 28, 2007 8:46 AM
Comments

Take McCain, please.

Posted by: erp at February 28, 2007 9:58 AM

If they win OH, it doesn't matter what happens with WV and AR. And OH looks pretty good for them. Iraq better be looking like it is headed in the right direction by then or any Dem can win.

Posted by: JAB at February 28, 2007 1:19 PM

A conservative Christian like Jimmy Carter, right?

Posted by: Lou Gots at February 28, 2007 3:40 PM

"If the Democrats present a candidate who can have some personal or cultural affinity, at least on a limited basis, in states like West Virginia and Arkansas, they can carry it"

In other words, they have zero hope of carrying either state.

Posted by: b at February 28, 2007 3:45 PM

JAB - Ohio is essentially a RedState. The local pols (especially the Gov) however turned this state blue in '06 with their poor performance which was enhanced with the national anti-GOP mood. A decent GOP candidate against Hillary, Obama, or whomever should be able to carry OH.

Posted by: AWW at February 28, 2007 4:03 PM

Yes, it's no coincidence that the only presidents they've elected recently have been southern Baptists.

Posted by: oj at February 28, 2007 8:31 PM

Arkansas voted for Bill because he was one of them and not for his stance on issues. Hillary will get no such support. Being pro-abortion and pro-gun control will sink her. Especially if Congress manages to reauthorize the AWB.

Posted by: Pete at March 1, 2007 12:42 PM
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