February 2, 2007
BUT CAN HE HIT LIKE ANKIEL?:
Yankees' Hughes Looks Like the Real Deal (TIM MARCHMAN, February 2, 2007, NY Sun)
[A]ny fears that Hughes is just another product of the same hype machine that brought you Brad Halsey and Ed Yarnall can be set aside. Hughes is not guaranteed ever to do so much as throw a pitch in Yankee Stadium, but he's as good a bet as any minor leaguer to do great things in the game. Second, any concerns about the state of the Yankees' rotation should be balanced against the near certainty that Hughes will make a substantial impact this season, and the distinct possibility that he is, as of right now, the team's best starter.Concern that Hughes is just another chump is understandable but misplaced. Whatever you look for in a pitching prospect, Hughes has it. He's young (he turns 21 in June) and huge (6-foot-5, 220). He has great stuff, with excellent command of two fastballs, the harder of which coming in as high as 96 mph, as well as a hard curveball and a change-up. He has an immaculate statistical record, with a 269/54 K/BB ratio, only six home runs allowed, a solid ground ball rate, and a 2.13 ERA in 237.1 minor league innings. He has a clean health record, hasn't been overworked, and has pitched enough to prove he has the durability to be a starter. He hasn't had any notable run-ins with teammates, umpires, opponents, or the law so far in his young career. If you were to design a top pitching prospect, you'd come up with Hughes.
Further good news for Yankees fans is that one worry they may have is misplaced, and that's fear that no matter how bright and shiny Hughes may be, he hasn't yet pitched at Triple-A, and thus isn't ready for the big leagues. It's nonsense; truly elite prospects rarely spend much time in Triple-A, both because they don't need to and because it's better for them to learn on the job in the majors against the tougher competition. Just look up the records of any of the really great pitching prospects of the last 10 years. Mark Prior made three starts in Triple-A, Kerry Wood made 10, Scott Kazmir made none, and Rick Ankiel made 16. All demonstrated why they were considered studs as soon as they stepped foot on a major league mound. Barring injury, Hughes is going to be ready by June, and there's little reason to think he wouldn't be ready to take the ball right out of spring training.
In keeping with that list of broken down former teen phenoms, The excellent Hardball Times Annual has a great note about young Mr. Hughes:
His dominating 2006 performance most closely resembles former Orioles prospect Matt Riley's 1999 season as a teenager in the Eastern League. Since then, Riley has contributed fewer than 100 innings in the big leagues while recovering from three serious elbow injuries.Posted by Orrin Judd at February 2, 2007 10:00 AM
Wood had arm problems in high school, I believe, which meant he had no prospect of long-term success. Prior had the bad luck of pitching for a manager who had neither the interest nor the ability to nurture young arms. Since I don't think Torre's ever had to bring along a young star pitcher (certainly not in recent years), I'd be awfully nervous about "young Mr. Hughes."
Rick Ankiel is probably the greatest head-case in the history of professional sports. The thing that puts him head-and-shoulders above the rest is that he had his mental meltdown in the MIDDLE of a game. He was great for the first 2-3 innings of that playoff game against the Mets, then he totally lost it and it was gone forever. He's his own special category of nut...
Posted by: b at February 2, 2007 10:30 AMThat's St. Phil to you.
And St. Phil also has an immaculate delivery to the plate, and throws his fastball primarily, which means there's little chance of an elbow injury.
Posted by: Jim in Chicago at February 2, 2007 12:17 PMExcept that he's already had elbow and shoulder problems.
Posted by: oj at February 2, 2007 1:41 PMDid you miss the part in the Marchman piece where he notes that St. Phil has "a clean health record"?
Hughes himself has repeatedly denied earlier claims that he'd been shut down in his first 2 milg seasons b/c of health concerns. Rather, the Yanks were slowly increasing his ip each year in the minors, and that that was why he was shut down.
But if it makes you Sawx fans sleep better to think that the St. Phil isn't who everyone says he is . . .
Meanwhile he, Joba, and Betances will anchor the Yankee rotation through 2020, racking up WS titles in the process the way Whitey Ford did during his career. By which time the Sawx will have left the AL for the NL in desperation.
Posted by: Jim in Chicago at February 2, 2007 4:01 PMMiss? No. Ignore in favor of scouting reports. Yes.
He's certainly their best pitching prospect since Jim Beattie.
Posted by: oj at February 2, 2007 4:38 PM