YOU DON'T CUT DOWN A TREE WITH LOW HANGING FRUIT:

Geopolitical Diary: A Leadership Change In Tehran? (Stratfor, January 05, 2007)

Rumors are circulating that Iran's 67-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is entering the final stage in his fight against cancer. Though there is an incentive among Western intelligence agencies and Iranian opposition groups to promulgate these rumors -- to give the impression that all is not well in the Islamic Republic -- there appears to be some truth to the reports. Sources inside Hezbollah indicate that the Supreme Leader's death is not imminent, but there is a real possibility that he could become incapacitated within the year. The online political blog Pajamas Media reported Thursday that the Supreme Leader has already died, though the reliability of this information remains uncertain at the time of this writing. [...]

To make things even more interesting, sources in Beirut report that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's days in power could also be numbered -- he could depart the political scene within the year. After his radical conservative faction suffered a bruising defeat in the Dec. 2006 municipal and Assembly of Experts elections, the boisterous president's spotlight has waned. His original purpose, to exhibit a radical and unpredictable face for the Iranian regime, has largely been achieved in the 18 months he has been in office.

The man expected to restore order in Tehran, should these two monumental developments take place in 2007, is none other than former Iranian President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who recently became the chairman of the 85-member Assembly of Experts. Rafsanjani, known for his pragmatic leanings and his track record in corrupt business practices, was Ahmadinejad's main opponent in the June 2005 presidential elections. It is unclear at this point whether Ahmadinejad or Khamenei would be the first to go, but the president's fate will likely be determined by the health of Khamenei. The removal of Ahmadinejad, which could take the form of a forced resignation, expulsion by the Supreme Leader or a deadly accident, is not expected to take place before June. Should Khamenei survive through the summer of 2007, it is quite possible that Rafsanjani would replace Ahmadinejad as president. It might be no coincidence that Rafsanjani, in a recent talk with journalists, described a new highway currently under construction in Tehran, as the "highway of Shahid (martyr) Ahmadinejad."

The recent election disaster for Mahmoud not only demonstrated his own weakness but that of the hard-line cleric, Yazdi, who is his main backer higher up the food chain.

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RAFSANJANI REVELATIONS UNDERMINE PRO-PRESIDENTIAL FORCES (Kamal Nazer Yasin 10/16/06, EurasiaNet)

As Iran gears up for important elections in December, members of the country’s political elite are focusing on domestic politics. Aliakbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, perhaps Iran’s wiliest politician, has thrown President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s neo-conservative allies on the defensive with a well-coordinated campaign to discredit the country’s Revolutionary Guards.

Rafsanjani’s campaign is designed not only to frustrate the neo-conservatives’ goal of tightening their control over Iran’s political and religious institutions, but also to dispel the widely held international perception that Iran’s political leadership is monolithic. By putting distance between himself and Ahmadinejad’s administration, Rafsanjani is trying to present a leadership alternative that could have important implications in the ongoing controversy over Iran’s nuclear program.

Iran's crocodile rocked (Pepe Escobar, 12/18/06, Asia Times)

With votes still being hand-counted, there's every indication Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani's moderate faction has scored a stunning victory over the extreme right in the crucial election for the 86-member Council of Experts, according to Iranian state TV. [...]

The Council of Experts (86 clerics only; no women allowed) is key because it's the only institution in the Islamic Republic capable of holding the supreme leader accountable and even removing him from office. It is the system's Holy Grail. The supreme leader - not the president - is where the buck stops in Iran.

Once again, this election has been a case of the extreme right against the moderate/pragmatists. Or the recluse Yazdi - aka "the crocodile" (in Farsi) - against the eternal insider, relative "friend of the West", former president (1989-97), opportunist and king of the dodgy deal, Rafsanjani.

Yazdi is the dean of the Imam Khomeini Educational and Research Institute in Qom, a hardcore hawza (theological school) that has prepared and configured the world view of key members of the Ahmadinejad presidency. It's impossible to interview Yazdi - officially because of "government rules", unofficially of his own volition.

Rafsanjani, aka "the shark", remains the chairman of the Expediency Council and virtually the regime's No 2, behind Supreme Leader Ali al-Khamenei and ahead of Ahmadinejad. Iranian pop culture, with a tinge of Discovery Channel, delighted in describing this as the battle between the crocodile and the shark.

It was heavily symbolic that moderate Rafsanjani and another former president, the progressive, sartorially impeccable Mohammad "dialogue of civilizations" Khatami, voted together in the Jamaran mosque, where the late ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic, used to deliver his speeches. Iranian reformist papers did not fail to publish the emblematic photo sealing the alliance on their front pages this past Saturday. Rafsanjani's victory was sweeter because he had lost to Ahmadinejad in the second round of the 2005 presidential elections.

Ahmadinejad is Judged by the People (Strategy Page, December 19, 2006)

As it turns out, Khamenei, although a religious conservative, is a lot less conservative that the President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and probably a lot saner as well. In office for only 18 months, Ahmadinejad has pushed an ultra-hard line religious agenda, while making wildly belligerent statements, including threats against Israel and the U.S., and has been pouring money into Hezbollah. This has made him wildly popular with many of the poverty-stricken, religiously conservative rural people of Iran. Perhaps too popular for the religious leadership's tastes. [...]

The current elections for the Assembly of Experts turned out to be a contest between supporters of President Ahmadinejad, led by the fiercely conservative Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi, who has openly denounced democracy as "un-Islamic," and those of former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who, although himself a senior cleric, has proven a much more careful and pragmatic politician.

Under Iran's constitution, Ayatollah Khamenei and the senior religious leadership constitute the "Guardian Council," and have the power to vet candidates for all elections. In anticipation of the current round of elections for the Assembly, some 490 people entered their names as candidates. The Guardian Council rejected about 240 of them. Another 110 dropped out for various reasons (e.g., compromises among tribal leaders, health, etc.). That left just 140 candidates vying for 86 seats. Many of the rejected candidates were considered too "liberal." But a number of Mesbah-Yazdi's supporters were also rejected, perhaps suggesting the Guardian Council's displeasure with Ahmadinejad. In addition, Ahmadinejad's supporters were unable to form a coalition with other religious conservatives. Meanwhile, reformist elements and younger people – including university students, some of whom publicly booed Ahmadinejad during a speech recently – turned out in large numbers; they generally stayed home during the presidential elections 18 months ago, which was a major reason for Ahmadinejad's election

Posted by Orrin Judd at January 4, 2007 8:47 PM