PERMANENTIZING THE STATUS QUO:

Hezbollah Widens Anti-Government Campaign: Protest Opens Promised Phase of Daily Demonstrations in Lebanese Capital (Anthony Shadid, 1/10/07, Washington Post)

The struggle between Hezbollah and its allies and the government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora has plunged Lebanon into one of its worst political crises since the end of the 15-year civil war in 1990. It may determine which group is ascendant in Lebanese politics: the alliance around Hezbollah, supported by Iran and Syria, or a government coalition, supported by the United States.

Beyond Lebanon, the crisis intersects with tension across the region, as the United States and Iran vie for influence and concerns grow over a Shiite-Sunni conflict becoming ever more pronounced in Iraq.

But unlike in December, when the crisis often had an hour-to-hour urgency, the confrontation has assumed a veneer of normalcy in its second month. Each side has escalated -- Hezbollah with its support for Tuesday's protest led by Lebanese unions, the government by pressing ahead with policy changes over the opposition's objections -- but both appear prepared for a long wait. For their part, Hezbollah officials have stressed that any escalation will remain nonviolent and not break any laws.

So far, both sides can claim victories. The government has refused to resign. But by paralyzing the government, Hezbollah has stanched what it saw as growing U.S. influence here and delayed the convening of an international court to try suspects in the 2005 slaying of former prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri, an assassination that government supporters blame on Syria.

"It is a mixed bag," said Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. "But what's interesting is that it's a mixed bag that might have reached an unexpected status quo."

"My suspicion or sense is that we're in kind of a holding pattern," he added.

At the point where your status quo is a recognition that the Shi'a of Southern Lebanon won't be governed by their historic oppressors to the North, why not just formalize that understanding and divide into two sovereign states?

Posted by Orrin Judd at January 10, 2007 8:34 AM