18 TRIES ISN'T A RUNNING GAME:

Much More to this Contest Than Brady vs. Manning (MICHAEL DAVID SMITH, January 19, 2007, NY Sun)

WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL Everyone who watched football this season thought the Colts run defense would be their downfall come playoff time. But through two playoff games, not only has the defense not hurt the Colts, it has come through and led them to victory against both the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens. In two playoff games, the Colts have allowed just 127 yards on 37 runs. [...]

[T]he Colts are lining up their defensive backs closer to the line of scrimmage to help in run support.

That last tactic is something both Kansas City and Baltimore failed to capitalize on. Now it's New England's turn. Look for Brady to pass to Reche Caldwell early and often. In their first meeting Caldwell, who led the Patriots in catches and yards this season, caught just one pass, but in general no. 1 receivers have burned the Colts' secondary. Caldwell figures to have a big day Sunday -- especially if Sanders and the rest of the secondary are focusing on the running game. [...]

New England's rushing attack will come from veteran Corey Dillon and rookie Laurence Maroney. Both are effective runners, and the Colts' success the last two weeks aside, it's hard to envision Indianapolis shutting both of them down. Even counting the playoffs, the Colts have allowed 5.2 yards a carry this season, the worst in the league. To put that in perspective, 5.2 yards a carry was Jim Brown's career average, which means the Colts have made the average runner look like the greatest runner in the history of the game.

Unless Bob Kraft fires Bill Belichick and hires Herm Edwards or Brian Billick by Sunday, the Pats won't run the ball that little.

Posted by Orrin Judd at January 19, 2007 10:30 AM