"universalist religions aren't tribes" At least the mentality is tribal if the "believers" killed each other for the other's interpretation of the univeralist religion. To the Sunnis, the Shias are worst than the Americans. (Jill Carroll chronicled that sentiment in her captivity. Btw, she is amazing. Check her piece out in the Christian Science Monitor.)

Finally getting it are we? When the roof comes off of a jailhouse, it empties out. Confusion to the enemy. It comes.

As our Shi'a Crescent grows...

ic:

No, the point is that you can't change tribes, we can convert you though.

Lou is right about one thing - if Hassan Nasrallah, Ayman Al-Zawahiri, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are the best leadership the radical jailhouse has to offer, there will be a lot more confusion coming.

Nasrallah is obviously not similar to the other two--he's winning.

He's also closer to being dead. Zawahiri is living under a very large rock in a very desolate place, and Ahmadinejad will probably appear in public only in Indonesia from now on. But Nasrallah can't leave his rubble hole without a Hellfire pointed at him. It's quite possible that Siniora will give him up to the Israelis. We should pay him to do so.

Nasrallah will be leading a nation after Siniora is gone.

Riiight - just like Haniyeh. Or, for that matter, Zarqawi or Osama. Nasrallah is a walking dead man. What will his life expectancy be if we ever turn Syria upside down? About a week, probably. And if Ahmadinejad is tossed out in Iran, what will Hezbollah do in the confusion?

And I forgot to mention that with the reports that Maliki is about to go under the bus, Moqtada is also looking more and more 'ghostly' these days. If we decide to back the Shi'a whole-heartedly in Iraq, then the nutjobs have to go first.

Hezbollah uses Syria and Iran, not vice versa. Recall that Washington back-stabbed (actually, front-stabbed) the French as soon as he got a chance too.

The Israelis don't kill Nasrallah because it would have no effect on the outcome of the war. South Lebanon will be a state, irrespective of mere personalities.

Where I come from, those who pay the bills do the using. Now perhaps you are claiming some superannuated status for Hezbollah, but I doubt if they are 'in charge'.

Israel didn't kill Nasrallah last summer, but if they fight again, I don't expect the same 'choice'.

South Lebanon will become a state - but not before Syria implodes. Assad wants a puppet, not an equal. And he certainly doesn't want his clan to be dispossessed.

America paid the bills for the mujahadeen, until they won too.

They won't kill him because he doesn't matter. The same reason they left Arafat in place.