December 6, 2006
JUST KEEP WINNING:
Cognitive Dissonance on Iraq (NIBRAS KAZIMI, December 6, 2006, NY Sun)
Many commentators are herding into three "exit plan" categories: (1) the counterinsurgency cannot win militarily and we must grant political concessions to the insurgents, (2) America cannot afford to be embroiled in a sectarian civil war with regional implications, and (3) even if there were a chance for victory, the long-term effect would damage America's soul.The last group — that argues an American win would be a Pyrrhic victory — belongs to a subgenre of leftist politics that has consistently maintained that using American might is wrong. This group should be ignored outright. [...]
The most rational camp arguing for quitting Iraq comprises those who believe that a military win is impossible. But assuming that America can't win and is therefore losing, then who among its jihadist and Baathist enemies can claim victory on the ground? The answer is that no one can demonstrate that the insurgents are on the upswing. Insurgent activity may have increased, but its overall results, such as holding down territory, are meager.
One of the great strengths of Mark Moyar's Triumph Forsaken is his analysis of records and histories from the North Vietnamese and Viet Cong themselves, which consistently jibed with the most optimistic assessments of how well the war was going for the South. The Iraqi recalcitrants don't even have a North Vietnam, a Russia, or a China to help them out.
Definitely some good ideas here, particularly the use of technology to make the bandits' tasks more difficult, and the application of Sippenhaft--clan punishment--to bandit families and households.
It is absolutely essential to final victory that we attack the way the bandits are fighting, the things which make it possible for them to continue fighting. The way to do this, and the article suggests this as well, is to place the responsibility for the application of superior terror upon the Iraqis themselves.
The only way this can be done is to unleash what the squeamish call "civil war." We should take a side in this "civil war," call this side the "Government of Iraq," and stiffen it with our technology and our air power.
Posted by: Lou Gots at December 6, 2006 10:24 AM
The Iraqi recalcitrants don't even have a North Vietnam, a Russia, or a China to help them out.
They've got Iran and Syria right next door, and Iran (at least) is getting weapons from Russia.
Posted by: PapayaSF at December 6, 2006 7:34 PMBoth need Iraq disarmed and quiet, especially once we leave.
Posted by: oj at December 6, 2006 8:50 PM