ALL ABOUT MAJORITY RULE:

Premier Wants U.S. Forces to Target Sunni Insurgents (Sudarsan Raghavan, December 20, 2006, Washington Post)

Iraq's Shiite prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, has created a two-pronged security plan for Baghdad in which U.S. forces would aggressively target Sunni Arab insurgents instead of Shiite militias. At the same time, Maliki would intensify his efforts to weaken Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and contain his Mahdi Army militia, Iraqi officials said Tuesday.

Under these conditions, Maliki would accept a surge in U.S. troops in Baghdad, according to two Maliki advisers with knowledge of the plan. Maliki plans to discuss his proposal with Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates and senior U.S. commanders during a meeting in Baghdad on Thursday, the officials said. The Bush administration is contemplating a temporary increase in troops to help stem the highest levels of violence since 2003.

The plan calls for U.S. troops to combat Sunni Arab insurgents for four to eight weeks in outer Baghdad neighborhoods, which Maliki believes are the source of the sectarian violence afflicting the capital, his aides said. Iraqi forces would take over primary responsibility for patrolling inner Baghdad from U.S. forces.

Why Most Iraqis Feel Safe (Strategy Page, December 20, 2006)

For all the reports of violence in Iraq, most Iraqis feel safe. That's because, 78 percent of the violence (as measured by armed attacks), take place in Baghdad, Anbar province (west of Baghdad), and the smaller Salah ad Din and Diyala provinces. These four areas contain 37 percent of the population. In the rest of Iraq, containing 63 percent of the population, opinion surveys indicate that 90 percent of the people feel safe.

There are currently 120-140 attacks a day. The number of attacks has gone up some 22 percent since last Summer. The areas of the most violence are where Sunni Arabs live. In Baghdad, which has been a Sunni Arab city for centuries, there is also a large Shia Arab minority. The Shia now control the government, and security services. Sunni Arab terrorists are determined to overthrow the government, and put Sunni Arabs back in control. The terrorists have to do this in areas where there is a Sunni Arab population where they can hide and prepare their attacks.

No state can accept a cohort that won't be governed. It's up to the Sunni whether they accept governance of get dealt with.

MORE:
Top Shiite Cleric Is Said to Favor a Coalition for Iraq (KIRK SEMPLE and EDWARD WONG, 12/20/06)

American officials have been told by intermediaries that Ayatollah Sistani “has blessed the idea of forming a moderate front,” according to a senior American official. “We wouldn’t have gotten this far without his support.”

President Bush’s national security adviser, Stephen J. Hadley, wrote in a classified memo last month that the Americans should “engage Sistani to reassure and seek his support for a new, nonsectarian political movement.” In recent weeks, President Bush has received Shiite and Sunni politicians at the White House to encourage them to move forward with the coalition, officials said.

Since the American invasion of Iraq, Ayatollah Sistani has refused to meet with anyone from the American government but receives messages through intermediaries.

In meetings with Shiite politicians at his home in Najaf about two weeks ago, the reclusive ayatollah laid out conditions that the new coalition would have to meet to win his full approval, according to Sheik Humam Hamoudi, a senior Shiite legislator.

A principal demand, Mr. Hamoudi said, was that any political realignment “preserve the unity” of the 130-member Shiite parliamentary bloc, the United Iraqi Alliance.

But officials say that stipulation can be interpreted broadly to mean that the Shiite bloc be preserved in name only, with its various parties forming their own coalitions with Sunni Arabs or with Kurds. The new coalition could lead to the effective fragmentation of the ruling Shiite bloc because it is unlikely that Mr. Sadr, the militia leader, will sign on, Iraqi officials say.

Such an open split would weaken Shiite control over the government and increase tensions between rival Shiite militias, which have periodically clashed.

Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki and his Shiite party, Islamic Dawa, are hesitant about signing on to the coalition. Dawa members say they are concerned that rival Shiite parties are trying to oust Mr. Maliki. They also suspect the Sunni Arabs’ real goal is to erode Shiite power.

“I think it’s a leap into the unknown,” said Sami al-Askari, a Shiite legislator who advises Mr. Maliki. “The negative things are clear, but no one can explain exactly what the positive things are.”

There don't appear to be any positives, so, presumably, al-Sadr is already on board.
General Opposes Adding to U.S. Forces in Iraq, Emphasizing International Solutions for Region (THOM SHANKER, 12/20/06, NY Times)

General Abizaid, who is completing the final months of a highly decorated military career, acknowledges that additional American forces, favored by some of President Bush’s top advisers, might provide a short-term boost in security. But he argues that foreign troops are a toxin bound to be rejected by Iraqis, and that expanding the number of American troops merely puts off the day when Iraqis are forced to take responsibility for their own security.

Posted by Orrin Judd at December 20, 2006 9:07 AM