November 5, 2006


Washington Post-ABC News Poll (The Washington Post, Nov. 5, 2006)

Emotionally it's best to assume a debacle for the GOP on Tuesday, but if the President's approval rating is anything like 43% and the split on even the generic ballot is in the vicinity of 51-45 we still don't quite get how the Democrats gin up the turnout they'll need for a landslide.

Poll: GOP could keep Senate (STEVEN THOMMA, 11/05/06, McClatchy Newspapers)

Republican Senate candidates have bounced back in two largely overlooked states, strengthening their party's chance to retain control of the U.S. Senate in Tuesday's elections, according to an exclusive series of McClatchy Newspapers-MSNBC polls.

Twelve new state-by-state polls show a surprise shift in the political battleground to the north as Republican incumbents clawed their way back in two states frequently written off as lost to them - Montana and Rhode Island. [...]

And in Tennessee, a closely watched Senate battleground considered a toss-up until now, Republican Bob Corker has opened up a 50-38 percent lead over Democrat U.S. Rep. Harold Ford Jr. The campaign is for the Republican-held seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Bill Frist.

All 12 state polls have a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points. They were taken between Oct. 31 and Nov. 3.

If Republicans hold those three key states, they are likely to retain power in the Senate, even if they lose other battleground states such as Missouri and Virginia, where the new polls show they've lost the edge narrowly to Democrats.

Most of the 12 states polled by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc. - eight for McClatchy-MSNBC, four for other media clients of Mason-Dixon - remain too close to call.

Posted by Orrin Judd at November 5, 2006 10:45 AM

"we still don't quite get how the Democrats gin up the turnout they'll need for a landslide"

They have killed off future voters through abortion - but they have increased the electorate by myriads with all those that have died since this began. Thus, the cemetery vote has mushroomed to make up for the loss of these children, don't you know.

Posted by: obc at November 5, 2006 11:23 AM

This appears to be good news for the GOP. However it is best to remain skeptical as it is a WAPO poll so it could a) be real, b) butt covering by the WAPO in case their Dem wave doesn't materialize, or c) an effort to scare Dems to the polls.

Posted by: AWW at November 5, 2006 12:44 PM

butt covering by the WAPO

Polls are the news equivalent of toilet paper: They are both designed to be disposable, they do their necessary yet distasteful job well, and you flush and forget 'em once they've been used.

(And (b) could be real, after all, if the Dems do lose, no one will care. But if they don't, it can be blamed on a sudden, last minute surge by millions of voters who didn't cast absentee ballots.)

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at November 5, 2006 1:56 PM

"Somewhat" disapproving of someone's job performance is something less than powerful opposition to that person. It's always easy to find something to disagree with, yet still support the person.
Could it be that most of those polled actually support Bush, all in all?

Posted by: Steve at November 5, 2006 4:41 PM

Pew Research has come out with their final pre-election polls, and it shows Dems lead in generic down to 4 points. The last time it was this low, in 1994, they lost 56 seats in the House. Just something to think about for the next 2 days.

Posted by: sam at November 5, 2006 4:57 PM

If we don't believe the polls that go against our positions, why do we believe the ones for them?

Posted by: erp at November 5, 2006 6:24 PM