November 7, 2006

WE'VE GOT NO CLUE, BUT WE DO HAVE BOOKS:

Time for our Midterm Election Prediction Contest:

(1) What well the House split be after this election, it's about 232-203 now:

(2) What will the Senate split be after this election, currently it's 55-45 (let's consider the I's with the party whose leadership they vote for):


(3) Pick one incumbent Governor who will fail to win re-election:


UPDATE:
Election Eve 2006: THE FINAL PREDICTIONS (Larry J. Sabato and David Wasserman, 11/06/06, U.Va. Center for Politics)

THE SENATE: +6 Dems = 51D, 49R [...]

THE HOUSE: +29 Dems = 232D, 203R [...]

THE GOVERNORSHIPS: +7 Dems = 29D, 21R


President Bush Job Approval (Rasmussen Reports, November 6, 2006)
On the day before Election Day, 45% of Americans approve of the way that George W. Bush is performing his role as President. This is the President's highest approval rating in a little over a month. [...]

The Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power Summary remains tied with 48 seats in the Republican column, 48 for the Democrats, and four Toss-Ups


Posted by Orrin Judd at November 7, 2006 9:27 AM
Comments

210 R
225 D

51 R
49 D

Ehrlich will lose

Posted by: BJW at November 3, 2006 2:52 PM

House R 218 D 217

Senate R 51 D 49 (indy = Dem)

Blago loses (The Trib is trying - and will succeed - to sink him with headlines between now and Tuesday.)

Posted by: Bruno at November 3, 2006 2:56 PM

220 R - 215 D
52 R - 47 D - 1 I
Ehrlich loses in MD

Posted by: jd watson at November 3, 2006 3:00 PM

217-217 and one that will still be in the courts on 03 January.

54 GOP

Kulongowski (D-Ore.) gets early retirement, although I think Freudenthal (D-Wyo) gets a scare.

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at November 3, 2006 3:05 PM

212-R 223-D
52 R 48 D
Ehrlich

Posted by: curt at November 3, 2006 3:07 PM

220 D
210 R

51 R
49 D

Otter although I know Ehrlich is the safe choice

Posted by: Chris Durnell at November 3, 2006 3:12 PM

House: 225-210, D
Senate: 51-49, R
Tim Pawlenty loses in MN

Posted by: AC at November 3, 2006 3:13 PM

220D 215R
50-50
Pawlenty (R-MN) loses

Posted by: ted welter at November 3, 2006 3:35 PM

222R-213 House
52R-48 Senate
Kulongowski (D-OR)

Posted by: John Resnick at November 3, 2006 3:36 PM

House: 223 R - 212 D
Senate: 53 R - 47 D
Kulongowski (D-OR)

Posted by: Mike Morley at November 3, 2006 4:05 PM

House 220 R - 215 D
Senate 53 R - 47 D

Governors, I'm not sure so
Kulongowski seems popular

Posted by: Patrick H at November 3, 2006 4:12 PM

House: 218-217, D
Senate: 51-49, R

Kulongowski (D-OR)

Posted by: Brandon at November 3, 2006 4:20 PM

House - GOP loses 10 so 222 R 213 D

Senate - GOP loses 2 so 53 R 45 D 2 I (Lieberman and Sanders)

Governor - Granholm loses in MI. Yes this means I think Bouchard wins in the Senate as well.

Posted by: AWW at November 3, 2006 4:22 PM

House 227 R - 208 D
Senate 56 R - 44 D

Doyle (D) Wisconsin will lose

Posted by: Andrew Craft at November 3, 2006 4:24 PM

House 219 R - 216 D
Senate 53 R - 47 D/I

Kulongowski (D-OR)

Posted by: TimF at November 3, 2006 6:00 PM

House:

Reps. 221 - Rats. 214

Senate:

Reps. 53 - Rats 46 _ IND. 1

Governor losing - Kulongowski: Oregon

Posted by: obc at November 3, 2006 6:45 PM

House - (R) 222 (D) 213

Senate - (R) 56 (D) 44

don't really know from governors, so I'll pick Doyle (WI)

but I will predict that Murtha loses

Posted by: jim hamlen at November 3, 2006 8:41 PM

House: Republicans 219 Democrats 216
Senate: Republicans 51 Democrats 49

Incumbant governor to lose: Ehrlich (I'm going to do my part to help Granholm lose here in MI.)

Posted by: Dave W at November 3, 2006 9:38 PM

House: 220 R, 215 D
Senate: 52 R, 47 D, 1 I
Governors out: Ehrlich

Did my best in early voting to remove Blago but I think he'll survive (rats).

Posted by: Steve White at November 3, 2006 11:47 PM

House
R 235
D 200

Senate
R 58
D 42

Incumbent Governor loses - Erlich

Posted by: erp at November 4, 2006 8:25 AM

House 217 -217
Jeffersons (La) seat decided in December to make it 218D-217R.

Senate 51R 49D

Doyle (Wi) governor upset.

Posted by: D. Woolwine at November 4, 2006 1:22 PM

219 R
216 D

52 R
48 D

Doyle (WI) loses

Posted by: rds at November 4, 2006 4:10 PM

House
R 233
D 202

Senate
R 58
D 42

Granholm

Posted by: Qiao Yang at November 4, 2006 4:37 PM

220 D
215 R

52 R
48 D

Governor losing - Kulongowski: Oregon
( I have no idea who this is )

Posted by: JonofAtlanta at November 4, 2006 4:39 PM

House: R-207, D-229
Senate: R-51, D-49
Gov losing: Ehrlich

if the rest of the country had candidates as politically gifted and competent at their jobs ad the MD R's it would have 60+ senators and 240 house seats. Sadly, Steele and Ehrlich will probably lose close races so I had to pick Ehrlich for my governship loss. It's not a reflection on him and I hope I am wrong.

Posted by: JAB at November 4, 2006 6:41 PM

JAB - for Steele to lose the MD african americans would have to continue their 90% Democrat voting behavior. If that happens, after all the african-american endorsements of Steele and the Cardin-NAACP fiasco, then the GOP will never get a significant portion of african american voters and should just give up.

Posted by: AWW at November 4, 2006 9:16 PM

D: 218
R: 217

Senate: 50/50

No incumbent governor loses.

Posted by: PapayaSF at November 5, 2006 1:56 PM

I'd like to revise and extend my remarks. Ehrlich doesn't lose.

Posted by: erp at November 5, 2006 6:12 PM

Dems win 30 House seats, 5 Senate and Ehrlich loses

Posted by: oj at November 5, 2006 7:10 PM

He didn't mean me in the library with the candlestick.

Posted by: Colonel Mustard at November 5, 2006 7:15 PM

Don't be so sure, Colonel M!

Posted by: obc at November 5, 2006 9:25 PM

House: R: 223 D: 222
Senate R: 53 D: 45 I: 2

Losing incumbent Gov: Blagojevich

Posted by: LargeBill at November 5, 2006 10:26 PM

(1) 221-214 R


(2) 53-47 R


(3) Ehrlich

Posted by: RC at November 6, 2006 2:38 AM

House:
220 R - 215 D

Senate:
50 R - 50 D

Robert Ehrlich (MD) will lose.

Posted by: Rich at November 6, 2006 11:28 AM

Senate: R52 D48
House: D219 R21
Governor: Jim Nussle from Iowa

Posted by: Todd at November 6, 2006 12:40 PM

If the general consensus of results appear come true then Sabato and Wasserman should be out of work by Wednesday afternoon.

Posted by: AWW at November 6, 2006 1:03 PM

House R219 D216
Senate R54 D46
Governor: Doyle

Posted by: pj at November 6, 2006 1:53 PM

House: R 221 D 214
Senate: R 53 D 45 I 1
Gov: R 25 D 25

Posted by: Scott at November 6, 2006 2:11 PM

test

Posted by: oj at November 6, 2006 2:30 PM

House R 221 D 214

Senate R 52 D 48

Governor No incumbent will lose

Posted by: h-man at November 6, 2006 2:47 PM

The stock market is making a final prediction too, which is that nothing changes tomorrow.

Posted by: curt at November 6, 2006 3:27 PM

House: R219 D215 I1
Senate: R54 D45 I1

Governors: Blago loses, after all that money and months of advertising he still can't break 45%, he's toast. Say hello Governor Barr-Topinka.

Talent and Corker win, Webb upsets Allen.
Bouchard and Steele score major upsets. De Wine drops one in a squeaker, as does Chaffee. Keane comes close, but no cigar. He fairs better in 2008 however, when the election to fill the rest of Menendez term is held (he should be in jail by then).

Posted by: Robert Modean at November 6, 2006 4:03 PM

D 220 R 215
R 52 D 48
Carcieri loses

Posted by: Matt Cohen at November 6, 2006 4:11 PM

R 220 D 215
R 54 D 46
no incumbant Governor loses

Posted by: Bob at November 6, 2006 4:35 PM

Everyone's banking on W vetoing - he won't.

Posted by: Sandy P at November 6, 2006 5:06 PM

Veto what? If they hand him immigration amnesty he'll gladly sign. Senate Republicans can kill everything else.

Posted by: oj at November 6, 2006 5:32 PM

House: 227 R, 208 D
Senate: 56 R 44 D

Gov: Doyle.

Posted by: Jim in Chicago at November 6, 2006 7:11 PM

I should pay attention to detail...... forgot about the incumbent governor.

House: R 221 D 214
Senate: R 53 D 45 I 1
Oregon: (D) Kulongowski

Posted by: Scott at November 6, 2006 8:29 PM

1.) D 220, R 215

2.) R 52, D 48

3.) Granholm.

Posted by: Matt Murphy at November 7, 2006 2:13 AM

Give never the wolf the wether to keep... Thomas

Posted by: Thomas at November 21, 2006 12:28 PM

Give never the wolf the wether to keep... Thomas

Posted by: Thomas at November 21, 2006 12:29 PM

We never know the value of water till the well is dry... Florence

Posted by: Florence at November 21, 2006 12:55 PM
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