November 2, 2006

SOMETIMES BOOK LEARNIN' DOESN'T SEEM ENOUGH (via Bryan Francoeur):

U.S. Recession Warnings Grow Louder; Some Say It's Just Noise (Vince Golle and Carlos Torres, 11/02/06, Bloomberg)

Warnings of a U.S. recession are growing louder. Some economists say it's just noise.

David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch & Co.'s New York-based chief North American economist yesterday said the economy is ``on a knife's edge,'' ... [...]

Don't bet on it, say economists Steve Wieting at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and John Shin at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. A rout in real estate and auto production cutbacks are delivering a one-two punch to an economy that grew earlier this year at the fastest pace since 2003. Optimists say sustained spending by consumers and businesses will ensure the five-year- old expansion stays intact.


You can hardly blame economists who pine for a recession, particularly since any of them who graduated in the past twenty-four years have never gotten to experience one in their adult lives. After all, who'd want to be a volcanologist if no mountain ever blew its top?

Posted by Orrin Judd at November 2, 2006 9:31 PM
Comments

A recession right now? This guy must have been in diapers in 1974-75, when things were really bad. Or 1982, when the overall usage of electricity actually dropped over that in 1981.

I would note that hedge fund managers are not the best observers.

Posted by: jim hamlen at November 2, 2006 10:02 PM

There was a mini-recession in 93-94.

Posted by: Sandy P at November 2, 2006 11:04 PM

No, there wasn't.

Posted by: oj at November 2, 2006 11:19 PM

To paraphrases an old '70's song...
"Tin grizzlies and Hoover's coming; theeconomy's down the drain!" I've heard it before!

Posted by: Dave W at November 2, 2006 11:41 PM

Jim Rogers, is one of those who puts his faith in
PetroChina and other upstandingly ethical companies other than American

Posted by: narciso at November 3, 2006 12:02 AM

There was a very slight recession in 1991, not in 1993-94.

http://www.bea.gov/bea/newsrel/gdpnewsrelease.htm

Real Gross Domestic Product: Percent Change from Preceding Year

1990 1.9
1991 -0.2
1992 3.3
1993 2.7
1994 4.0
1995 2.5
1996 3.7
1997 4.5
1998 4.2
1999 4.5
2000 3.7
2001 0.8
2002 1.6
2003 2.5
2004 3.9
2005 3.2

Posted by: Brandon at November 3, 2006 10:51 AM

No, there wasn't. The bureau that dates such things has already said that by the time they amass all the data from that period--which takes years and years--it won't be considered a recession anymore.

Posted by: oj at November 3, 2006 10:58 AM

They've had 15 years. Until they officially change it, it's considered a recession.

Posted by: Brandon at November 3, 2006 11:30 AM

No, they've said it wasn't and they're already saying that '01-'02 isn't going to be.

Posted by: oj at November 3, 2006 2:11 PM

Bloomberg corrected this quote very shortly after it ran. I am startled you did not do so also.

Posted by: Jim Rogers at November 3, 2006 8:21 PM
« DON'T FENCE HIM IN: | Main | WE'RE MUZZLED, THEY SHRIEKED (via David Hill, The Bronx): »