November 6, 2006


THAT AWFUL PEW POLL (Noam Scheiber, 11/05/06, TNR: The Plank)

John Judis and I have been e-mailing about the alarming Pew poll that came out today. It reflects the same trends captured by that earlier Washington Post/ABC poll, except that the trends are, gulp, even more pronounced. Worse, the folks at Pew have graciously posted their cross-tabs, which makes it nearly impossible to rationalize the lousy results. As John points out, the fact that Democrats' 15-point advantage among white women last month has turned into a 2-point disadvantage today is incredibly ominous. Unfortunately, it's not quite as ominous as the erosion in the Democrats' advantage among Northeasterners: from 26 points to 9.

Too bad there isn't a good American word for Schaudenfreude.

Posted by Orrin Judd at November 6, 2006 10:34 AM

But we can just import and use the word "schaudenfreude" as part of American English. That's the beauty of it.

Scheiber's guys should win over 20 house seats and 5 senate seats even with the new polls. But, as OJ points out, they will do so by hiding their beliefs from the voters who are just frustrated. This is in direct contrast to 1994 when the Republicans advertised their beliefs. Once they take over the House, they will have to reveal their policy positions. Then the polls will really change.

Posted by: JAB at November 6, 2006 10:44 AM

The American version of schaudenfreude is to say "Ha ha!" in a Nelson Muntz voice.

Posted by: Bryan at November 6, 2006 11:15 AM

Before we get all too giddy and happy, let's not forget that Carter was still elected even though there was a massive swing to Ford in the last week before that election. Just that the swing was too little and too late.

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at November 6, 2006 12:07 PM

Carter barely beat the only president ever to not win a national election and despite his party having controlled Congress for twenty plus years, having just won a landslide two years earlier, and his opponent's pardon of the only president ever to resign. Carter demonstrates the natural conservatism of the country.

Posted by: oj at November 6, 2006 12:31 PM

Too bad there isn't a good American word for Schaudenfreude.

Let's save it until Wednesday. It will be the sweeter then.

Posted by: AC at November 6, 2006 2:23 PM

I don't even think there's a good German word for "Schaudenfreude." It doesn't look right. I don't think it's a real word.

It should be "Schadenfreude": joy over [another's] demage or loss. "Schauden" sounds like something to do with shuddering or shivering, if it means anything at all. Some dialect, maybe. Who cares. It's a dying language anyway. The real Schadenfreude is sitting back and watching them shrivel up and blow away without their Platz im Sonne.

The sad thing about the work-up to the election is that we do not and cannot believe the MSM. That is a great loss for all of us: a subject for someone else's Schadenfreude, if you like. Too many of them lie too much, especially about elections. They lied about calling Florida before the polls closed in 2000, they lied about the National Guard memoes in 2004, and they are lying about anything and everything now. Watch them lie about the weather tomorrow, if they think that will help their side.

Posted by: Lou Gots at November 6, 2006 3:21 PM

It's a gutter language, incapable of beauty.

Posted by: oj at November 6, 2006 3:53 PM

English is a germanic language too. Oops for spelling it wrong.

Posted by: JAB at November 6, 2006 4:04 PM

OJ: don't forget, Carter ran against a Republican incumbent who had been approved as Vice President by a Democrat-controlled Congress. And who had, therefore, been chosen because he had no national base or even name recognition.

It was like beating a tomato can in a split decision.

Posted by: Bob Hawkins at November 6, 2006 4:45 PM

Now, now - kartoffeln is a nice word. So is kugelschrieber. Even the German word for garbage (quatsch) is pretty cool.

The media is going to have a collective stroke tomorrow night. The next two years will be fun, as we get to watch the hive decide whether to increase their partisanship, or just try to hide it more. One thing is for sure, more and more Republicans are going to go on the attack (a la Michael Steele). The (old) media is pampered, ponderous, predictable, and very, very dumb. Kind of like John Kerry.

Schadenfreude? A single word doesn't do - how about "I'm from the government, and I'm here to help you"? Whenever someone from the bureauracy says that, you have to know he's feeling something.

Posted by: jim hamlen at November 6, 2006 7:09 PM

The think about Ford is that the "momentum" "closing the gap" became meaningless when Carter managed to win more votes.

Close only counts in King County elections. (Can you imagine the ugliness if there's a close race here in the Upper Left Washington and control of the House or Senate depends on it?)

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at November 6, 2006 10:57 PM