MO', BITTER BLUES:

Polls: Dems' lead shrinking, but still strong (Susan Page, 11/5/2006, USA TODAY)

A national USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds remarkable parallels between the congressional elections Tuesday and the watershed elections in 1994 that swept Republicans into control of the House and Senate. [...]

"Based on history, a 7-point lead among likely voters still suggest Democrats will take enough votes to win a majority of seats in the House," says Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of the Gallup Poll. What gives some analysts pause, however, is the sophisticated redistricting over the past decade that has made most congressional districts less competitive.

it's an interesting tack that Ms Page takes in her analysis given that USA Today ran the following when they did the poll less than a month ago, Poll: Dems gain big lead (Jill Lawrence, 10/10/06, USA TODAY)

A Capitol Hill sex scandal has reinforced public doubts about Republican leadership and pushed Democrats to a huge lead in the race for control of Congress four weeks before Election Day, the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows.

Democrats had a 23-point lead over Republicans in every group of people questioned — likely voters, registered voters and adults — on which party's House candidate would get their vote.

The "Democrat lead still strong" theme seems an odd choice.

Posted by Orrin Judd at November 5, 2006 9:33 PM