October 12, 2006


North Korean collapse a nightmare scenario for China: analysts (Peter Harmsen,Oct 12, 2006, AFP)

A collapsing North Korea is a nightmare China hopes will never come true, as it could lead to military and political chaos on its doorstep, according to analysts.

North Korea's declared nuclear test this week has highlighted an entire range of violent scenarios, one scarier than the other, and all with direct implications for China's national security, they said.

"China is opposed to any military action against North Korea," said Cui Zhiying, director of the Center for Asia-Pacific Studies at Shanghai's Tongji University. "Peace and stability is our prime concern."

Any abrupt, large-scale change on the Korean peninsula would go against China's overall strategy, which targets the stability required for a rapidly growing economy.

Fortunately, we have no interest in a stable Communist China.

Posted by Orrin Judd at October 12, 2006 6:51 PM

I really don't take seriously any adult who uses the term "scary" or any derivation of the word.

Posted by: pchuck at October 12, 2006 8:20 PM

What is really frightening, pchuck, is that all we would have to do to "destabilize" China is start shutting down portions of our trade with them, not for protectionist reasons, but using our awesome market as a weapon.

We pay a few more dollars for goods (while slowly rebuilding various industries the green eye shade has 'off shored') while China suffers major unrest and decreasing dollar assets.

The frightening thing is that our current leadership isn't even considering this, and is engaging in 'orchestrated handwringing' over at the increasingly worthless UN.

Posted by: Bruno at October 12, 2006 9:07 PM

If China, with its 1.6B people and millions under arms, cannot handle a post regime scenario in NK it is not ready for prime time. It seems to reason that it can exact a higher price from the US for calling off its dog or will benefit if the US expends geopolitical capital for killing it. This reasoning is shortsighted at best.

Posted by: JAB at October 12, 2006 9:08 PM

Of course it isnn't ready for primetime, or it would have a decent regime.

Posted by: oj at October 12, 2006 9:12 PM

Who's handwringing? When there are windfall apples you don't climb the tree.

Posted by: oj at October 12, 2006 9:13 PM

...is that all we would have to do to "destabilize" China is start shutting down portions of our trade with them...

Bruno, how would you do this? Who is going to pay for the 400 containers Walmart has on the dock? Who pays for the 5 containers of Giant bicycles Joe's Bike Shop is loading? Who's going to pay the tea merchants for their 5 containers of $600/Lbs tea? Who pays off the Billions of dollars in contracts now in force? What do you do when China calls due on US debt? Would the next step be nationalizing their assets? In the meantime Joe has closed shop and the tea merchants are broke. You get something like this started it would take years to unravel.

It would solve nary a thing in regards to NK. Invoking restraint of trade with China now wouldn't be the answer in my opinion.

Posted by: Tom Wall at October 13, 2006 3:05 AM