October 10, 2006


Democrats Take the Lead in Midterms (Jennifer Barrett, Sept 28, 2002, Newsweek)

IF THE NOVEMBER ELECTIONS for U.S. Congress were held today, more registered voters say they would vote for the Democratic candidate (47 percent) than the Republican candidate (40 percent) in their district. Thirteen percent say the would vote for another party’s candidate or are undecided.

A Political Limbo:
How low can the Republicans go?
(Marcus Mabry, Oct 7, 2006, Newsweek)
If the election were held today, 51 percent of likely voters would vote for the Democrat in their district versus 39 percent who would vote for the Republican.

Posted by Orrin Judd at October 10, 2006 11:20 PM

The fact that Newsweek is the source of these bodes well for the GOP as Newsweek always overstates the Dem case.

Similar point - the WAPO poll that was cited the last day or so showing good news for the Dems was done over the weekend (which traditionally favors Dems) and polled 41% Dems but 28% GOP. So either the pollsters are incompetent or rigging the poll to make the Dems look good.

Posted by: AWW at October 11, 2006 8:07 AM

That's the problem with all these polls is that the pollster decides himself what the likely percentage of Democrats and Republicans in the country is and then cooks his books to reflect that number, so the poll delivers essentially the number he's decided on. It doesn't mean that he's biased, just that he's polling based on the conventional wisdom.

Posted by: oj at October 11, 2006 8:16 AM

You know, it's rather interesting that the Polling business, unlike most high-growth businesses, has not been the subject of a good piece of investigative journalism.

And I think that the only way the Polling business will ever be investigated by journalists is if one independent major newspaper (say, the Omaha World-Herald) that does not have a major link with a polling organization does it. Or, if another newspaper has a falling-out with a major polling unit due to business disagreements.

Posted by: Brad S at October 11, 2006 8:49 AM

Brad - to your point I'm hoping the GOP does well, making Stuart Rothensburg's Dem blowout prediction completely off the wall. Of course Rothensburg (and other political pundits) would then come up with excuses as to why they were off as they don't seem accountable.

Posted by: AWW at October 11, 2006 10:51 AM

If the election were held today


If the Tigers played the Cardinals today, they'd have a good chance of winning too. Except the game's not being held today, (and may never be held), because all the teams involved still have to go throught the campaign/playoffs to get to the point where they do get to play the game/have the election. And a lot will happen in the next few weeks in both that will change the predicted outcome (just ask the Damnyankees about that...)

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at October 11, 2006 2:51 PM