October 30, 2006


Analysis: GOP Likely to Lose House Seats (Liz Sidoti, October 30, 2006, Associated Press)

Little more than a week before the elections, the Democratic advantage in national polls is much wider that in previous midterm elections when Democrats captured a few Republican-held districts. That has led analysts to conclude that Democrats inevitably will gain seats this fall.

For months, Democrats have been widely favored over Republicans on the question most every pollster asks to measure where the campaign for control of the House stands. It's some version of what the Associated Press and Ipsos asks — "If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were held today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in your congressional district?"

The latest AP-AOL News poll showed 56 percent of likely voters said Democrats, while 37 percent said Republicans, a 19 percentage-point advantage less than two weeks before voters choose a new House. The gap was 10 percentage points in early October. [...]

"The question traditionally has done a good job of measuring the popular vote, and the popular vote is a good predictor of the number of seats each party will win," said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center, an independent public opinion organization.

Democrats have to be leading the generic ballot by a good margin, but the likelihood that their lead doubled over two weeks of relentlessly good economic news is pretty minimal.

GOP Will Cling to Control of House (John Gizzi, Oct 30, 2006, Human Events)

Because of post-2000 redistricting, there are relatively few competitive races. Two years ago, 98.7% of incumbents were re-elected, a post-World War II record. In addition, in the 21 districts where Republicans are stepping down or have resigned, George W. Bush won an average of 57% of the vote in 2004.

In my view, the Republicans will lose a net of 12 seats, resulting in a House that has a 220-to-215 Republican majority...

The VT race is hardly leaning--it's a toss-up at best.

Posted by Orrin Judd at October 30, 2006 4:34 PM

Agreed. After some good polls the last week for some reason the doom and gloom is returning to GOP circles, probably as the MSM cranks out another group of pro-Dem polls. But there hasn't been any news to drive events toward the Dem's favor.

It has been pointed out before the generic ballot question is useless. Put some actual names on the poll and the results change significantly

Posted by: AWW at October 30, 2006 8:38 PM

All polls are useless, especially in today's world when we don't answer our phones until we check caller ID.

Posted by: erp at October 31, 2006 9:28 AM