October 2, 2006
AT LEAST NATIONAL REVIEW WILL BE HAPPY:
Democrats have shot at Senate, polls find (Steven Thomma, 10/02/06, McClatchy Newspapers)
Democrats are within striking distance of taking control of the Senate on Election Day, a series of new polls for McClatchy Newspapers and MSNBC showed today.Democratic Senate candidates are tied or have a slight edge or an outright lead in every one of 10 pivotal battleground states. Democrats must gain six seats to capture control of the 100-member Senate.
Democratic candidates have a strong chance to win all seven at-risk Republican Senate seats — with their candidates tied in Virginia and Missouri, holding a slight edge in Ohio, Rhode Island and Tennessee, and leading in Montana and Pennsylvania.
And they are in position to hold their three most vulnerable seats — with a slight edge in New Jersey and leading in Maryland and Washington.
Tell it to President Kerry. Posted by Orrin Judd at October 2, 2006 8:09 AM
There's many a slip 'tween the cup and lip. You'd think these bozos would know that by now.
Posted by: erp at October 2, 2006 10:10 AMPeople are actually paid to write this sort of drivel? Based on the baseball season standings 5 weeks ago, both the Sox and the Sawx would be getting ready for their playoff games tomorrow. Will the pundit class ever figure out that because elections are held on a date certain, that polls taken months in advance aren't all that predictive in close races? That like sports teams, campaigns have to deal with actually playing the full season, and just might figure that into their plans? (And why do they always seem to have the close races going the the guy the writer would vote for?)
The fact that these polls have Dems keeping NJ means that they are flawed. Barring a last minute switch or Kean meltdown the NJ seat looks like a strong GOP pickup.
Posted by: AWW at October 2, 2006 11:10 AMAnother point. The news was looking good for the GOP the end of September. Now we're seeing all these good for the Dems polls/articles. There is a thought that this latest batch is just an attempt by the MSM to keep the Dems motivated for the election and discourage GOPers.
Posted by: AWW at October 2, 2006 11:17 AMLet's assume that the Dems got all seven "vulnerable" GOP seats this year. That would mean in 2012, in the midst of a Hillary Clinton Presidential re-election bid (sorry, OJ), the Democrats get to defend...25 SENATE SEATS. Just to give you a clue, the last time a political party had double-digit gains was in 1980, when the GOP took 12 of 24 Dem seats from the Watergate class of 1974.
Hillary Clinton does not want a repeat of this, and will do everything she can to make sure this does not happen.
Posted by: Brad S at October 2, 2006 11:26 AMAWW:
Huh? What does a gay congressman do to the price of gas?
Posted by: oj at October 2, 2006 11:32 AMPut another way, if the GOP gains 12 from a 2012 Dem class of 25 senators, and nothing much happens in 2008 and 2010, OJ will get to see the GOP go to 60 senators in 6 years!
Posted by: Brad S at October 2, 2006 11:33 AMMcCain's (or Giuliani's) landslide in '08 will put them in striking distance far sooner. If they just hold this time they can get there in two years.
Posted by: oj at October 2, 2006 12:02 PMDon't forget the '86 rebound when a number of those surprise wins lost trying to get reelected, giving the Senate back to the Dems for another 8 years.
Posted by: Raoul Ortega at October 2, 2006 1:33 PMThe Dems must celebrate now because polls are more accurate than actual votes. Comes one Nov. Wednesday, they will sue everybody in sight for losing their elections again.
Posted by: ic at October 2, 2006 5:25 PMOJ:
Unbelievable that some folks want to throw that away to make a "point," eh?
Posted by: Matt Murphy at October 2, 2006 8:03 PMNo, entirely believable. You're too young to remember how much the small government ideologues hated Reagan.
Posted by: oj at October 2, 2006 8:25 PM