August 2, 2006
WE BURN CORN:
More Comes From Knowing More: Ideas have consequences, which Malthus never quite understood (NICK SCHULZ, August 2, 2006, Opinion Journal)
For a long time, economists believed that much of their job was to analyze a world of scarcity, the grim business of harvesting limited resources and distributing too few goods to too many people. And then there was the matter of decreasing returns to additional investment. Such returns were once "a familiar topic in economics," David Warsh tells us in "Knowledge and the Wealth of Nations." After all, "even the richest coal vein plays out."Decreasing returns and scarcity animated the doomster wing of economics, of which Thomas Malthus was the principal architect. It was he who lamented overpopulation so famously, even ahead of Paul Ehrlich, and predicted bouts of "periodical misery" to adjust human numbers downward, putting them, at least now and then, in equilibrium with the world's limited riches.
Mr. Warsh, a former economics reporter for the Boston Globe, does not intend to mock earlier theories of political economy but to tell the story of their gradual refinement over time--especially as "one system of thought replaces another." He notes, for instance, that anti-Malthusian concepts central to the understanding of modern economic growth--abundance and the notion of "increasing returns"--came to compete with the scarcity school of thought. It is axiomatic to us, not least because of technology's marvelous effects, that "the same amount of work or sacrifice produces an increasing quantity of goods." But it was an idea that required special attention when it was first considered plausible.
Meanwhile, the poor Darwinists are still stuck in their Malthusian dead-end.
It's the human tendency toward zero-sum thinking. Intuitively makes sense, but highly misleading.Counter-intuitive thinking succeeds more often than not in economics as well as other systems of thought. A grounding in the westernized(Christian) concepts of 'natural law' and the maximization of ordered liberty within the open society is nature's (God's?) plan, anything that strives for the opposite,particularly the de-humanization of the 'other', is anti-human and economically counter-productive.Mercantilism,physiocracy,Marxism-lenninism and Islamicism are interesting examples of this human failing.
Posted by: Tom C.,Stamford,Ct. at August 2, 2006 9:11 PMThe Malthusian belief that scarcity is the natural order of things comes from the Darwinian idea that nature, red and tooth and claw, hones life so that only the fit survive.
As it turns out, mostly the living in easy and just about anything survives.
Posted by: David Cohen at August 2, 2006 9:21 PMAnd breeds rather easily with its neighbor.
Posted by: oj at August 2, 2006 9:37 PMNo,David. It comes from the basic human inclination to believe that human thought can't cope with the 'rich vein of coal' being tapped out or the simple reality that the potential of each human being is unlimited. People are transformed into liabilities rather than assets.
Posted by: Tom C.,Stamford,Ct. at August 2, 2006 9:37 PMSheesh. Don't these guys ever look out the window? We switched to coal after we cut down all the trees and when the coal runs out we'll switch gas and oil and when that runs out ...
Time for a whole new crop of "thinkers."
Posted by: erp at August 3, 2006 8:16 AMOf course, it goes with out saying that the "Idiot Curriculum" of our public schools stresses the opposite, that more comes from "knowing less" and that mastering knowledge has been made obsolete by calculators, computers, and certified "educators."
The ideology taught in education schools is that "it is more important to learn how to learn than it is to know 'mere facts.'"
The simple title of the above book shows how insipid this ed school ideology truly is. "Mere facts," and the cascade of facts that latch on to those facts are the foundation of "learning how to learn."
This nation can't survive another 10-15 years of public education.
Posted by: Bruno at August 3, 2006 8:54 AMWell, to defend Malthus he was only using the data points from the 5700 years of known human history. Mathusian theory had nothing to do with Darwinism because Darwin wasn't around yet. It had to do with the historical experience of Europe.
As the population increased in the High Middle Ages, living standards declined. It was only after the Black Death killed 1/3 of Europe that living standards rose again. That was perhaps the most dramatic evidence, but something similar happened during the 17th century which saw the population again decline due to various wars (the English Civil War, the Catholic-Huegonot crisis in France, the Thirty Years War in Germany, the Deluge in Poland) and afterwards living standards surpassed what it was before. One can see the same thing at various points in Roman history.
It's not that Malthus was wrong to think what he did. Instead we need to ask what changed so that his predictions turned out wrong. Erp's suggestion people switch to coal once they use all the trees works well - if your country had large deposits of coal like England did (plus the accumulated technical knowledge that allowed mass extraction). If you did not, like Italy or most of Eastern Europe, you were screwed - which is why the ever increasing populations there, faced with Malthusian standard of living declines, immigrated to the Americas where population density was very low.
If Europe did not have that safety valve, it is unlikely they could have bought themselves enough time to economically develop quick enough to prevent social turmoil. As it was, Europe had turmoil enough.
The problem with assuming that the potential of each human being is unlimted, as Tom C. puts it, that very few societies actually enable people to do so. Enlightenment Europe was able to, but it's important to remember that specific conditions, events, or policies are needed to escape the Malthusian trap.
Posted by: Chris Durnell at August 3, 2006 1:07 PMExactly! Culture is the deciding factor. Ideologies tending toward demonization of the 'other' or trapped in the habit of characterizing people in classes or sexes or whatever will wallow in backwardness and violence. The idea of liberty, ordered by law and equality before the law unlocks human potential. Malthus was looking in the rear-view mirror, Adam Smith was looking forward.
Posted by: Tom C.,Stamford,Ct. at August 3, 2006 4:43 PMChris, I don't suggest that people switch to coal, I suggest that people take their fate into their hands and not stand around like dumb beasts. BTW - I don't know about Italy, but Eastern Europe has coal.
Posted by: erp at August 3, 2006 5:39 PMHe was wrong even at that point and Darwin based his theory on the falsehood.
Posted by: oj at August 4, 2006 5:34 PM