August 13, 2006

THERE IS NO LEBANON:

Hezbollah gains as Lebanon's leaders struggle: As nation readies for truce, militia's influence grows (Thanassis Cambanis, August 13, 2006, Boston Globe)

``Hezbollah is stronger than the Lebanese state ," said Wael Abou Faour, a member of parliament from the Druze bloc who is close to the most powerful leaders of the government. The Druze, another religious sect, represent about 10 percent of Lebanon's population and are a unified and influential political force.

The government, Abou Faour said, has found itself on the sidelines at key points in the crisis, unable to exert any control over Hezbollah, a movement whose ``goals don't coincide with the interests of Lebanon." [...]

Lebanon's government is built on a delicate ethnic and sectarian blueprint drawn up under French colonial rule in 1943, which reserves key positions in the government and military for leaders of each group. It's called the ``confessional system," because it apportions powers to each major confession, or religious sect -- Maronite Christians, Sunni Muslims, Shi'ite Muslims, and Druze. All major decisions are supposed to be made by consensus.

That system broke down on July 12, however, when Hezbollah crossed into Israeli territory and kidnapped two soldiers, touching off the current war -- a conflict that government leaders said they never would have approved.

It's not the first time the confessional system has failed; civil war raged in Lebanon from 1975 to 1990, and mistrust still lingers among the country's groups.

That sense of division has only been heightened during the current crisis, with some Christians and Sunni Muslims cheering military strikes against Hezbollah, while Shi'ites have darkly warned that after the war internal critics of Hezbollah will ``face an accounting." Such friction has set the stage for a government weaker than ever to preside over a peace with Israel.

Nasrallah, the unelected head of a single movement representing Shi'ites, has been Lebanon's de facto commander in chief. His fighters move freely throughout southern Lebanon and much of Beirut, while Nasrallah has made several speeches a week outlining his military strategy and his terms for a cease-fire with Israel.

``As long as there is Israeli military movement, Israeli field aggression, and Israeli soldiers occupying our land . . . it is our natural right to confront them, fight them, and defend our land, our homes, and ourselves," Nasrallah said yesterday in an hourlong speech watched closely on televisions across Lebanon. [...]

The ruling coalition, dominated by an alliance of Sunni Muslims, Christians, and Druze, deadlocked earlier this spring in talks with Hezbollah about disarming the group, whose militia has proven far more potent than the official Lebanese military .


The notion that
the 45% plurality of the Lebanese population should be denied self-government by an ethnic-religious coalition specifically arrayed against them, must be repellant to Americans.


MORE:
IN THE PARTY OF GOD: Are terrorists in Lebanon preparing for a larger war? (JEFFREY GOLDBERG, 2002-10-14 and 21, The New Yorker)
IN THE PARTY OF GOD: Hezbollah sets up operations in South America and the United States. (JEFFREY GOLDBERG, 2002-10-28, The New Yorker)

Posted by Orrin Judd at August 13, 2006 12:40 PM
Comments

Having that same 45 % attack America's only ally with impunity, thus helping to bring about the lunatic plans of the man who thinks of himself as a cross between the Twelfth Imam and Adolf Hitler should be equally repellant.

Your point about the Shi'a being natural allies of the US in the Middle East is valid to the extent that Quietism would still be the leading philosophy among them. Unfortunately, Queitism will die with the elderly Sistani.

Posted by: Peter at August 13, 2006 1:59 PM

It's not Quietism, just Separation. We forgot it for awhile when we took temporal power too but were recalled to it in short order.

If we were the 45%ers we'd be far more lethal.

An ally, not the only.

Posted by: oj at August 13, 2006 2:08 PM

They have their state.

Posted by: Jim in Chicago at August 13, 2006 2:30 PM

Not yet, but they will.

Posted by: oj at August 13, 2006 2:33 PM

Their "state" will be repellant to Americans and rightfully so.

Countdown to end of Zionist entity

Posted by: djs at August 13, 2006 2:39 PM

It'll be a state, not a "state."

Posted by: oj at August 13, 2006 2:47 PM

Nathan Bedford Forrest smiles.

Posted by: ghostcat at August 13, 2006 3:02 PM

At William Clarke Quantrill.

Posted by: ghostcat at August 13, 2006 3:04 PM

If Nassralah is the head of your 'state', hopefully he can make his way to 'paradise' with the ventillation he will need when he get's there.

Posted by: Tom C.,Stamford,Ct. at August 13, 2006 9:49 PM

He doesn't matter.

Posted by: oj at August 13, 2006 9:57 PM

None of them matter, but he's the head Shi'a.

Posted by: Tom C.,Stamford,Ct. at August 13, 2006 10:02 PM

That's why he doesn't matter.

Posted by: oj at August 13, 2006 10:14 PM

Well, Siniora and his Cabinet have met and then scattered, after refusing to address UN Res. 1701. Apparently nobody wants to make the decision to send the Lebanese Army into the south. Nasrallah has "accepted" the resolution but refused to agree with two principle parts of it (no new arms and also allowing the Army to come to the border). It seems the Lebanese government has a difficult decision to make. Perhaps their best alternative is to attack Syria - after all, Assad killed Hariri and has yet to answer for it.

Will the fighting stop? Hezbollah fired 230 rockets today. The Israelis aren't going anywhere (in the next few weeks, at least) without someone else dug in to stop the rockets. And what will Kofi do? Who will be persuaded to step into the breach?

Posted by: jim hamlen at August 13, 2006 11:31 PM

the Lebanese don't matter. Olmert wants out.

Posted by: oj at August 13, 2006 11:36 PM

It's a deke, oj.

Olmert wants the Hezbos to be seen as signing their own death warrant. And that's the way it's playing out.

Posted by: ghostcat at August 13, 2006 11:55 PM
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