August 22, 2006


Tories open nine-point lead as Labour drops to 19-year low (Julian Glover, August 22, 2006, The Guardian)

David Cameron is on course for a possible general election win, according to a Guardian/ICM poll published today that shows support for the Conservatives climbing to a lead that could give them a narrow majority in the Commons, while Labour has plunged to a 19-year low. [...]

The rating is worse than Labour achieved at the 1987 or 1992 elections and worse than almost every poll result under Neil Kinnock and John Smith's leadership.

Meanwhile the Conservatives have climbed one point to 40%, passing the confidence-boosting threshold for the first time in a Guardian/ICM poll since August 1992, in the wake of John Major's election victory.

Shocker: Democrat lead in US House race drops to only two points (Election Watchdog, 08-21-2006, Human Events)
And just as I reported earlier today on the problems with the Gallup poll and other surveys showing a bias for Democrats, the Gallup poll suddenly reports a dramatic drop in the Democrat lead in the US House race to only two points.

In a poll taken over the weekend, the poll of registered voters shows that Democrats now lead only 47%-45% which is down from a nine percentage point lead earlier in August. This is well within the poll's margin of error (+-4%) so the race is essentially even. It is the best showing for Republicans in this poll since just before the 2004 November election when Democrats were ahead by four points among registered voters, but Republicans still won the popular U.S. vote and a 232-203 lead in House seats.

Late Summer polls notoriously skew Left because of people vacationing.

Posted by Orrin Judd at August 22, 2006 9:29 AM

All those trolls screaming about Duke Cunningham must be choking today (including Rick Perlstein).

Local problems are hurting the Dems in MD, MI, MN, and NJ. The Senate race in MI is now trending towards the GOP, as is the race in MN. Santorum is catching up, as is Burns in MT. NJ is within reach for Kean. WA is close.

And Lamont will be lucky to win 42% on election day.

The GOP is going to hold its own in the House (- 2 perhaps), and will probably pick up a seat in the Senate. DeWine should pull out OH, if Blackwell can get his campaign moving.

Will Katie be wearing black when she does the re-cap on Nov. 8? Including a veil?

Posted by: jim hamlen at August 22, 2006 10:08 AM

Democrats suffer lost elections due to inexplicable drops in support, the way Communist countries suffer poor harvests due to unusually bad weather.

Posted by: Bob Hawkins at August 22, 2006 11:51 AM

Why would people vacationing skew polls one way or the other?

Posted by: Brandon at August 22, 2006 12:31 PM

Think about it a minute.

Posted by: oj at August 22, 2006 12:35 PM

If you're living on welfare you probably don't go up to the lake cabin.

Posted by: Gideon at August 22, 2006 12:38 PM

I would say most people don't go to the lake cabin. It doesn't seem to be a large enough demographic to skew a poll.

Posted by: Brandon at August 22, 2006 1:08 PM

You'd be wrong.

Posted by: oj at August 22, 2006 1:18 PM

My parents certainly go up to the lake cabin. Of course, they both vote Democrat. Whether this constitutes support for Orrin's claim is left as an exercise for the student.

Posted by: Kyle Haight at August 22, 2006 1:33 PM

Well, if the lake cabins in VT get polled, of course there are more Democrats! If the pollsters went in October, the animals would probably lean more conservative.

Posted by: ratbert at August 22, 2006 1:49 PM