August 26, 2006
SAFER SERVING:
Service in Iraq: Just How Risky? (Samuel H. Preston and Emily Buzzell, August 26, 2006, Washington Post)
The ratio of deaths to person-years, .00392, or 3.92 deaths per 1,000 person-years, is the death rate of military personnel in Iraq.How does this rate compare with that in other groups? One meaningful comparison is to the civilian population of the United States. That rate was 8.42 per 1,000 in 2003, more than twice that for military personnel in Iraq.
The comparison is imperfect, of course, because a much higher fraction of the American population is elderly and subject to higher death rates from degenerative diseases. The death rate for U.S. men ages 18 to 39 in 2003 was 1.53 per 1,000 -- 39 percent of that of troops in Iraq. But one can also find something equivalent to combat conditions on home soil. The death rate for African American men ages 20 to 34 in Philadelphia was 4.37 per 1,000 in 2002, 11 percent higher than among troops in Iraq. Slightly more than half the Philadelphia deaths were homicides.
The death rate of American troops in Vietnam was 5.6 times that observed in Iraq.
It follows that the refusal to reinstitute the draft is, in its own odd way, racist.
More seriously, as we've noted in the past, the cost of replacing evil regimes and the ease with which we can do it raises obvious questions about whether we aren't obligated to do so more frequently. How, for example, can we justify not democratizing Cuba and North Korea when it's so easy and cheap to do so much good?
Posted by Orrin Judd at August 26, 2006 8:15 AMForget Cuba and North Korea. We could just annex Mexico and be done with the whole "illegal immigration problem." The only "unrest" from such an action won't be in Monterrey or Mazatlan but in places like Berkeley, Madison or Cambridge, and those people don't have any guns.
Have seen similar analyses which show Bagdad is about as dangerous as LA or DC when it comes to murders. But these types of comparisons never get through the MSM filter. All articles now seem to have "war-torn" as the new adjective for Iraq.
Posted by: AWW at August 26, 2006 1:40 PMAWW,
War deaths are a national issue. Localized murder/rapine are mere issues for the local TV stations. That's why MSM will never air such comparisons, and they are right to do so.
Posted by: Brad S at August 26, 2006 2:04 PMThat it's more dangerous in America than Baghdad isn't an issue? That's silly.
Posted by: oj at August 26, 2006 2:20 PMIt's a question of scope, OJ. Sending troops to other countries in the name of the United States makes their lives/deaths a national issue. Citizens dying at the hands of locals in (name your overtly violent American city here) is only a concern for the locals, unless there is a national pattern of crime that can be discerned.
Comparisons of violence in Baghdad to violence in New Orleans are silly.
Posted by: Brad S at August 26, 2006 2:50 PMUsing those same comparisons to blunt an agenda-seeking MSM is no way to get back at the MSM.
Posted by: Brad S at August 26, 2006 2:51 PMWhy? If Baghdad is safer than Miami it means something for both Iraqis and Americans, no? None of us will ever go to Iraq, but we do visit American cities. The same numbers that suggest Iraq is a failing state suggest American cities are failed too.
Who cares about the media?
Posted by: oj at August 26, 2006 3:34 PMMost of the violence in our cities is confined to what is now referred to as the "inner city." Big city mayors, following Giuliani's lead have correctly determined that it's their job is protect citizens and property and not give over their cities to marauding mobs.
Only a couple decades ago (remember Mayor Dinkins of NYC) city governments threw up their hands and told citizens to stay off the streets and lock themselves in their homes or apartments because the streets weren't safe and the city was disaster area of graffiti and grime.
We came to our senses and now the law abiding citizens have retaken their streets and it's the lawless who are being confined either in jail or in their ghettoes or barrios. Racist? Don't even bother going there.