August 11, 2006


Washington Whispers: GOP voters: like a rock (Paul Bedard, 8/9/06, US News)

Many Democrats may hate the war in Iraq and itch to dump the president, but a new GOP survey shows that Republican base voters stand ready to jam the November polls to return their team to Congress. A three-page-survey memo obtained by Washington Whispers reveals that despite reports of some dissatisfaction with the economy, the war, and President Bush, 81 percent of Republican voters are "almost certain" to vote and an additional 14 percent say they are "very likely." It goes without saying that they'll vote Republican: By a margin of 84 percent to 6 percent, they will pull the GOP toggle switch in the voting booth. And here is something you don't hear very often: 88 percent of Republicans approve of how the prez is handling his job.

Of course, the 6% all have blogs or write for rightwing rags and think they're the mainstream of the GOP.

Posted by Orrin Judd at August 11, 2006 2:02 PM

The talking points in the wake of Lamont's victory among the punditry apparently was supposed to be that the Democrats have the House all but locked up for November due to an anti-incumbency/anti-Republican mood, and there's virtually nothing the GOP can do to change the tide. Thursday's news seems to derailed that chatter for the time being, but we'll see if it re-emerges after the first series of post-terror arrest polls come out (though the Iraq question will be seperated out from the general WOT in most of the poll questions, as if one has absolutely nothing to do with the other).

Posted by: John at August 11, 2006 3:09 PM

To John's point - other sites have noted the political "pros" (Sabato, Cook, etc) pretty much calling the House, the Senate, and the governorship for the Dems in November. I understand that the GOP may lose seats but given the economy, the Dems dissaray, and the Dems positions on national security it is hard to believe a Dem wave is coming.

Posted by: AWW at August 11, 2006 3:36 PM

All that matters is gas prices, interest rates, unemployment and the market.

Posted by: oj at August 11, 2006 3:51 PM

AWW: The political "pros" like Sabato and Cook are so wrong and so often, it is a wonder anyone listens to them.

Here's what Cook said in summer of 2004, about Bush's prospects in the 2004 elections:

"This race has settled into a place that is not at all good for an incumbent, is remarkably stable, and one that is terrifying many Republican lawmakers, operatives and activists."

Sabato has a serious case of BDS, suggesting that, since Bush did not have a primary fight, he should donate his campaign money.

The only reason these morons are considered "pros", and appear regularly on TV to pontoificate, is because cable TV reporters and mainstream media are basically lazy, and keep these iddiots in their Rolodexes way past their "sell by" date., lest they have to go and do some real reporting.

Posted by: sam at August 11, 2006 3:53 PM

I don't have a handle on Cook, but Sabato's analysis seems pretty dead on to me, maybe even a little pro Republican. In the Senate he lists Montana and Pennsylvania as "leans Democratic" and Missouri, Ohio and Rhode Island as 'toss up" He has all the potential vulnerable Democratic Seats (Washington, Minnesota, Maryland, and New Jersey) as "leans Democratic". This would project to a three to four seat loss for the Republicans, which, in an historical context, would be a very good outcome.

Posted by: Earl Sutherland at August 11, 2006 4:33 PM

Earl - Bush and the GOP defied history in 2002 and 2004. I think they will do it again. Why? because the historical patterns don't reflect that a) there is a war on, b) the Dems are disfunctional, and c) the GOP has gotten better at basic vote mechanics like getting people to the polls. I think the GOP will hold Montana and possibly PA as Casey has been hiding for most of the campaign and will eventually get found out. On the Dem side I can see the GOP picking up Maryland and perhaps NJ.

Posted by: AWW at August 11, 2006 4:44 PM

Since I never believe anything in the msm when they say things I don't like, I must also make myself disbelieve them when they say something I like.

IMO a clean sweep for the Dems seems utterly preposterous.

Posted by: erp at August 11, 2006 5:32 PM