August 21, 2006


The peacekeepers of Penzance (Spengler, 8/22/06, Asia Times)

Like W S Gilbert's cowardly policemen in The Pirates of Penzance, Europe's prospective peacekeepers have decided that "a policeman's lot is not a happy one". [...]

Otto von Bismarck pronounced the Balkans unworthy of the bones of a single Pomeranian grenadier, and Europe's governments seem unwilling to sacrifice a single soldier to maintain the peace in southern Lebanon. This raises the question: What is Europe's interest in the Middle East? The answer appears to be: To disappear and be forgotten with the least possible fuss.

A people without progeny will not accept a single military casualty. If this generation is the last, there will be no children for whom to sacrifice. Today's Europeans value their distractions and amusements more than they do prospective children. Germany's 2005 birth rate of only 8.5 per 1,000 inhabitants indicates that Europe is following the low variant of UN population estimates. These guarantee the virtual disappearance of the Europeans by the end of the present century.

Only 300 million Europeans, nearly half of them geriatric, will remain at the end of the present century against more than 700 million (including all of Eastern Europe) today. Europeans younger than 60 years of age now number about 560 million; that number will fall by only 150 million by the year 2100. This number excludes immigrants, overwhelmingly from the Middle East and Africa, who show no signs of assimilating as Europeans.

The number of Americans will exceed the number of Europeans, Russia included, by around the year 2080, although the aggregate numbers mask the true extent of the catastrophe, for nearly half of Europe's survivors will have reached retirement age. A fifth of Europeans are past 60 now; by 2050 more than a third will be above 60; and by the end of the century nearly half. The United States' elderly will number about 30%, so that the number of Americans younger than 60, at 280 million, will be close to double the number of young and working-age Europeans.

Note too that all such projections assume that young Christian Europeans will be content to hang around there while it transitions from Secular Rationalism to Islam.

Posted by Orrin Judd at August 21, 2006 12:07 PM


What you project is happening now. My boss and his brother are native Europeans who wangled a transfer to a US operation of their Europe based corporation, earned a green card and then flew the coop. They are working for US companies now and my boss is seriously looking at citizenship.

He loves his home country but sees it as a dead-end professionally and personally for the reasons Spengler talks about. We'll see a lot more of this sort of thing.

I also suspect we won't hear nearly as much whining about this kind of immigration from Paul Cella or Tom Tancredo.

Posted by: jeff at August 21, 2006 2:35 PM