August 12, 2006
LIPSTICKING THE PIG:
Israelis Chase Hint of Victory (STEVEN ERLANGER, 8/13/06, NY Times)
Israel’s move to triple its ground forces in Lebanon a day before it is expected to accept a cease-fire has two goals: to damage Hezbollah as much as possible and to conclude the conflict with something that could be called a victory for an Israeli government under domestic pressure.Having begun the war by proclaiming that the aim was the destruction and disarmament of Hezbollah, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will only be able to claim that Hezbollah is badly hurt and, with the help of international troops, effectively restrained — even without the robust new international force or disarming of the militia that Israel initially demanded.
Mr. Olmert could still genuinely win by hitting the Ba'athists and terrorist leaders in Damascus.
MORE:
Olmert faces 'second war' on the home front: Ehud Olmert will face a "second war" to force him to resign as Israel's prime minister as soon as a lasting ceasefire in the Lebanon conflict takes effect (Harry de Quetteville, 13/08/2006, Sunday Telegraph)
"The day after this war, there will be a second war - that of the opposition against Olmert," said one senior Israeli politician. [...]On Friday, under the headline "Olmert must go", the Left-leaning daily Haaretz newspaper noted: "There is no mistake Ehud Olmert did not make this past month. Post-war, battered and bleeding Israel needs a new start and a new leader. It needs a real prime minister."
Israel's military leaders, who exert extraordinary political influence in the country, are also known to be seething after a hesitant Mr Olmert delayed, authorised and then put on hold the broader military operation in Lebanon.
They are said to be furious that a ceasefire may be approved at today's cabinet meeting, bringing an end to violence, before they have achieved their military goals.
For Israel, an imperfect deal (KARIN LAUB, 8/12/06, ASSOCIATED PRESS)
The U.N. terms will buy temporary calm, but make the next war between Israel and Tehran's proxy army inevitable, former Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom and some military analysts warned."It begs the question, `What was it all for?'" Shalom said, reflecting a growing chorus of criticism.
Israel had little choice but to go along with the U.S.-backed compromise, after its vaunted army failed to subdue Hezbollah in more than a month of fighting. The guerrillas took heavy blows and suffered scores of casualties, but kept raining rockets on northern Israel throughout the war and clung to positions near Israel's border.
An unmitigated disaster,/a> (Caroline Glick, 8/13/06, THE JERUSALEM POST)
The resolution represents a near-total victory for Hizbullah and its state sponsors Iran and Syria, and an unprecedented defeat for Israel and its ally the United States. This fact is evident both in the text of the resolution and in the very fact that the US decided to sponsor a cease-fire resolution before Israel had dismantled or seriously degraded Hizbullah's military capabilities. [...]The resolution presents Hizbullah with a clear diplomatic victory by placing their erroneous claim of Lebanese sovereignty over the Shaba Farms, or Mount Dov - a vast area on the Golan Heights that separates the Syrian Golan from the Upper Galilee and is disputed between Israel and Syria - on the negotiating table. In doing so, the resolution rewards Hizbullah's aggression by giving international legitimacy to its demand for territorial aggrandizement via acts of aggression, in contravention of the laws of nations.
Moreover, by allowing Lebanon to make territorial claims on Israel despite the fact that in 2000 the UN determined that Israel had withdrawn to the international border, the resolution sets a catastrophic precedent for the future. Because Lebanon is receiving international support for legally unsupportable territorial demands on Israel, in the future, the Palestinians, Syrians and indeed the Jordanians and Egyptians will feel empowered to employ aggression to gain territorial concessions from the Jewish state even if they previously signed treaties of peace with Israel. The message of the resolution's stand on Shaba Farms is that Israel can never expect for the world to recognize any of its borders as final.
By calling in the same paragraph for the "immediate cessation by Hizbullah of all attacks and the immediate cessation by Israel of all offensive military operations," the resolution treats as equivalent Hizbullah's illegal aggression against Israel and Israel's legitimate military actions taken in defense of its sovereign territory.
The Mideast death dance: Hamas and Hezbollah, Lebanon and Palestine, Syria and Iran, the U.S. and Israel: Unless these four pairs of actors turn away from their failed policies, the Middle East will sink further into violence and despair. (Rami G. Khouri, Jul. 15, 2006, Salon)
Hezbollah and Hamas emerged in the past decade as the main Arab political forces that resist the Israeli occupations in Lebanon and Palestine. They enjoy substantial popular support in their respective countries, while at the same time eliciting criticisms for their militant policies that inevitably draw harsh Israeli responses. We see this in Lebanon today as the Lebanese people broadly direct their anger at Israel for its brutal attacks against Lebanese civilian installations and fault Palestinians, other Arabs, Syria and Iran for perpetually making Lebanon the battleground for other conflicts -- but more softly question Hezbollah's decision to trigger this latest calamity.Posted by Orrin Judd at August 12, 2006 2:58 PMIt is no coincidence that Israel is now simultaneously bombing and destroying the civilian infrastructure in Palestine and Lebanon, including airports, bridges, roads, power plants, and government offices. It claims to do this in order to stop terror attacks against Israelis, but in fact the past four decades have shown that its policies generate exactly the opposite effect: They have given birth, power, credibility and now political incumbency to the Hamas and Hezbollah groups whose raison d'être has been to fight the Israeli occupation of their lands. Israeli destruction of normal life for Palestinians and Lebanese also results in the destruction of the credibility, efficacy and, in some cases, the legitimacy of routine government systems, making the Lebanese and Palestinian governments key actors in current events -- or non-actors in most cases.
The Lebanese and Palestinians have responded to Israel's persistent and increasingly savage attacks against entire civilian populations by creating parallel or alternative leaderships that can protect them and deliver essential services. With every new Israeli attack against the Hamas and Hezbollah leadership or the civilian populations, four important things happen, and will probably happen during this round of war: The Lebanese and Palestinian governments lose power and impact; Hamas and Hezbollah garner greater popular support, which enhances their effectiveness in guerrilla and resistance warfare; they expand their military technical capabilities (mainly longer-range missiles and better improvised explosive devices); and the anti-Israel, anti-U.S. resistance campaign led by Hamas and Hezbollah generates widespread political and popular support throughout the Middle East and much of the world.
OJ - agree but how realistic is that (Israel hitting Syria)? Israel is being roundly condemned for going after terrorists who have shot over 3,000 rockets into Israel, killing civilians - no way the international community would tolerate Israel hitting Syria.
Posted by: AWW at August 12, 2006 3:25 PMYes, they risk being re-condemned.
OJ, I can appreciate your concern for the long-ill-treated Shia.
But your love affair for Hezboallah is absolutely beyond me. They are coldblooded killers at the use of a fanatic who wants to see Israel and the west totally destroyed. But I really don't see much condemnation of them coming from you.
Your Catholic love of those who have saints and a lot of ritual is blinding you on this one, I think.
Posted by: true@true.net at August 12, 2006 4:29 PMThe Hezbos south of Litani are about to be crushed. If Syria and/or Iran so much as twitch in the direction of saving them, we're into Phase II. With direct French involvement. It's all good.
Posted by: ghostcat at August 12, 2006 4:36 PMtrue:
Ill-treated people often end up with dubious representation--fanatic enough to withstand the dangers. Hezbollah's cause--winning political power for the Shi'a plurality in Lebanon-- is just, even if some of their methods and rhetoric are extreme.
Posted by: oj at August 12, 2006 4:56 PMYeah, I'd say demands that Israel be destroyed, all Jews be killed and then every Lebanese who failed to support Hezb'allah is "extreme".
You've lost perspective and my respect.
Posted by: true enough at August 12, 2006 5:09 PMAnd, I am truly astonished that you take Hezb'allah at face value as being primarily concerned with political power for Lebanese Shia. If that was true once - a rather questionable thesis - it most certainly is true no longer.
Posted by: true enough at August 12, 2006 5:14 PMHezbollah is little different than Hamas and will likewise be moderated by the realities of political responsibility. Their rhetoric is just as silly as that of the Israeli Right.
Posted by: oj at August 12, 2006 5:19 PMThe trick, oj, is to take their weapons and give them their rights. Need to do both. Tough job, but somebody's gotta do it.
Posted by: ghostcat at August 12, 2006 5:21 PMghost:
Ask Lou, one of the rights is to be armed. The insistence that they have lesser rights than we is a manifestation of how we dehumanize them.
Ask Lou, criminals don't have the right to bear arms, only law-abiding citizens.
Posted by: erp at August 12, 2006 6:02 PMThe second right is to make their own laws.
Posted by: oj at August 12, 2006 6:38 PMBearing arms has nothing to do with Katyushas, RPGs, .50 calibers, and 30-mile rockets. If they want those weapons, they will lose their lives.
AKs - they can have tens of thousands. But nothing heavier (unless they successfully secede from Lebanon).
Posted by: ratbert at August 12, 2006 6:47 PM(1) HB has little to do with political representation for Lebanese Shia. HB could care less. They're dancing on strings held in Damascus and Tehran. Easier for Israel to sever those strings a few kilometers away in s. Lebanon, than to go into Damscus and Tehran.
(2) one of your points OJ, with regard to both s. Lebanon and the West Bank/Gaza is that by giving these folks their own state, and responsibility, Israel then has greater justification in hitting them back if they persist in fighting a war with Israel, no?
Well, the Israeli's withdrew from s. Lebanon and HB set up a defacto state there. Whatever their quibbles with the parliament in Beirut, the fact remains that HB has operated their own state with virtually no interference from Beirut. And yet they persisted in attacking Israel. Now its payback time. They wanted their state, they got it, and now they have to take responsibility for their actions.
Neither the Shia in the south, nor the Christians in the north will be free until the Syrians and Iranians are out of Lebanon.
Posted by: Jim in Chicago at August 12, 2006 7:25 PMBtw: it's funny that you accuse others of dehumanizing them, when you, by asking Israel to ignore their provocations are treating them like children, you're infantilizing them. They, the HB, deserve to be treated as responsible adults, not as babies, and as adults their provocations deserve a serious response from Israel.
Posted by: Jim in Chicago at August 12, 2006 7:29 PMJim:
Exactly. I have no problem as a moral or legal matter with Israel retaliating for attacks by Hezbollah. It was just stupid, which is why it didn't work. In particular, it is stupid if you don't want Southern Lebanon to become an independent Shi'a state--which the Israelis presumably don't. I do think they should become a state so think this tussle worked out rather well, though I'm sorry it was at Israel's expense. There was a better war for them to fight but they biffed it.
Posted by: oj at August 12, 2006 7:36 PMThe only people who want southern (lower case!) Lebanon to be Hezbostan are the Hezbos, Iran and Syria. And Syria, with its genitals in a French vise, is reconsidering. (Assassinating Harari was really stoopid.)
Posted by: ghostcat at August 12, 2006 8:23 PMOj, please don't play games with the RKBA. Hezbollah are not the militia. They are a criminal organization, the way the SS were a criminal organization.
Hezbollah's characteristic crime is pervasive violation of the LoW. They fight dressed as civilians, against civilians from behind civilians. Every breath they are suffered to take is the fruit of our and our ally's forbearance.
Excuse us if our sympathy for these criminals has been exhausted. Bad Indians don't get to keep their firesticks.
Posted by: Lou Gots at August 12, 2006 8:41 PMNo, they're the legitimate representatives of the people of Southern Lebanon. They fight like we did.
But, to the broader point, if ghost gets his wish and they get a nation there is no basis in any law or moral scheme for requiring that state not to be armed and able to defend itself. The Indians didn't get to keep their arms because we subjugated them. Israel can't do the same to the Shi'a.
Your sympathy is immaterial. They're as reality you'll learn to live with.
Posted by: oj at August 12, 2006 9:17 PMOlmert has sowed the seeds of Israel's demise with his Clintonite cowardice. He is a traitor.
OJ is, of course, wrong about political responsibilities maturing terrorists into humdrum public servants. That he will never, ever cede his sophisticated view of this matter need not serve as red meat for the rest of you. The Hezbohs could be lobbing thousands of sarin-tipped rockets into Tel Aviv every day and OJ would continue to find any response "silly."
However, OJ is right about at least Damascus needing to be addressed. If Israel had a man with the stones of our Gen'l Sherman, or a Menachem Begin, I think they'd shove the Shia into N. Leb and just take S. Leb as the fruits of a just war. Put people who want to murder your people, and passively or actively contribute to the murdering of your people, on a reservation, call it "the greater Beirut refugee camp" and give it a seat at the UN to vote against Israel.
In addition, Israel would be equally justified in taking the lower and eastern 2/3 of Syria. Forever. OJ makes the point that all they risk by doing the right thing is being "re-condemned." That's exactly right. International favor will never be their's. There's a freedom in that: the freedom of a zionist manifest destiny to democratize another large piece of the Middle East the way we democratized northern Mexico. What's Hebrew for "git-r-done"?
Posted by: Palmcroft at August 12, 2006 9:20 PMBegin and Sharon didn't do any better than Olmert. It's not a war Israel can win.
Posted by: oj at August 12, 2006 9:26 PMghost:
Yes, that's the overwhelming majority of the people of Southern Lebanon. They'll get their wish because they think of themselves as a nation. That's the lesson that history since WWI teaches, as witness Israel.
Posted by: oj at August 12, 2006 9:29 PMOJ, they either have the stomach for it, or very soon they don't exist; is there nobody in Israel who wants to kill bad guys? They can win: by conquering. Conquer, expand, repeat. The Arabs lucky enough to be absorbed will join the richest and freest Arab middle-class in the world, as Israelis.
The Hezbohs have responsibility for S. Leb, they sucker-punched Israel with rockets for 18 months; now most of Lebanon's infrastructure is badly damaged and there are shortages of everything vital to daily subsistence. The political consequence for this civil servanthood is that Hezbollah is wildly popular. Neither have Iran and N. Korea softened and civilized with nationhood responsibilities. Yours is a pipe dream in this matter.
Posted by: Palmcroft at August 12, 2006 9:34 PMTo the contrary, the reality is that there is no external existential threat but a fatal internal one. Their secularism spells their demographic doom. Sharon just gave Palestine back as a holding action. It's Judaism they lack the stomach for.
Fortunately, by the time the state is dying off its neighbors will be rather normal democratic states.
Posted by: oj at August 12, 2006 9:39 PMYou make a good point about their inevitable death by secularism. Maybe we ought to encourage a Muslim evangelization of Israel; a mass conversion would both save the Jews and produce yet another Muslim democracy.
Posted by: Palmcroft at August 12, 2006 10:53 PMThere won't be a conversion--they'll just outnumber them one day and outvote them. All Sharon was doing is trying to draw Israel's new borders narrowly enough to delay that day for awhile.
www.brothersjudd.com/blog/archives/2005/08/zionism_without_zionists.html
Posted by: oj at August 12, 2006 10:57 PMOJ, thanks for the insight; for all your wrongness, which I attribute to New England inbreeding, you are sometimes spot-on; but doesn't this brink-of-extinction viewpoint make worrying about the Hezbohs or any other Jew hater/attacker rather "silly"?
Posted by: Palmcroft at August 12, 2006 11:05 PMNo. We need to help Reform Islam, which will endure along with us, and an important part of that is not hating Jews, whose religion is perfectly compatible with both of ours. We had trouble learning that ourselves if you recall.
Posted by: oj at August 12, 2006 11:13 PMYes, Judaism is indisputably great. But's it's sort of played-out if Jews don't want more Jews, no? If Jews are deciding to ship traincars full of potential kids to virtual crematoriums in the form of childlessness, is not their endstate that of the Hezbohs?
Posted by: Palmcroft at August 12, 2006 11:22 PMThe Orthodox haven't given up and still reproduce at decent rates. There just won't be enough of them for there to be a Jewish state eventually.
Posted by: oj at August 12, 2006 11:27 PMCaroline Glick is as hysterical as the American hawks who think Israel should have wiped out everything in Lebanon. And then Syria.
No need. Iran, maybe.
Posted by: ghostcat at August 13, 2006 12:13 AMpalm, I thought that Arab Israelis were happy with their lot, but I read that they were also demonstrating for Hezbollah. I hate citing something I read in the media, but if this is true, it's very disturbing.
Posted by: erp at August 13, 2006 12:16 PMERP: yes, that behavior in a time of war fully justifies detention camps, or permanent reservations; but, as OJ points out, Israel is plunging toward demographic nullity, so it's all just noise on the ride down
we can airlift the Orthodox breeders as the Hezbohs ride into Tel Aviv gleefully shooting off their rifles and waving the crushed skulls of the Jewish children they tortured and killed along the way; the Hezbohs will win, Olmert has really sped up the timetable for their victory, but they're still savages
Posted by: Palmcroft at August 13, 2006 12:30 PMpalm, are you being sarcastic? It's difficult to know what's really happening when the media are so unreliable.
I don't think the Hezbos will win and still hold out hope that Bush pulls out another plum.
Posted by: erp at August 13, 2006 4:45 PMERP: it's all over but the dyin': Hesbo savages win, and they ain't gonna wait for the demographic collapse of the Jewish democracy
Posted by: Palmcroft at August 13, 2006 7:04 PM