July 17, 2006
THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE TO LEARN TO LIVE WITH A SHI'ITE LEBANON:
Tel Aviv plans 4-tier, intensifying offensive (Abraham Rabinovich, 7/17/06, THE WASHINGTON TIMES)
One of the final stages, presumably, is the entry of ground forces into Lebanon.
If Israel's main objectives -- a halt in the firing of missiles into Israel and a Lebanese government agreement to displace Hezbollah from the border area -- have not been achieved by the end of this week, ground troops will cross the border, according to the sources.
Israel is unenthusiastic about the prospect of getting bogged down again in southern Lebanon as it was for 18 years before its pullout in 2000.
But the head of the IDF operations directorate, Brig. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot, said Saturday that any ground incursion will be limited in time and in the area affected.
Israeli officials say they don't think the international community will force Israel to cease fire before its goals are achieved.
Of course not--it would be the Israeli people who would force Israel to stop again because the objective is unattainable and the price not worth it.
MORE:
In Israel, fury mixed with fears (Thomas Frank, 7/17/06, USA TODAY)
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, with cautious support from the Bush administration, signaled a newly aggressive strategy in which the aim is not to pummel Hezbollah into inactivity, as in the past, but to dismantle the Iranian-backed, Shiite Muslim militia for good.Posted by Orrin Judd at July 17, 2006 7:07 AMThat pleases some Israelis, especially in this northern region near the Lebanese border, within easy range of Hezbollah rockets.
But many also quietly worry about getting dragged back into what some call "the Lebanon mud" — a wary reference to Israel's bloody 18-year military presence in Lebanon that ended in 2000.
"We did it once. We don't want to do it again," says Alon Oppenheimer, who runs a now-empty family restaurant in this touristy beach town that has been peppered by Hezbollah rockets since Thursday. Israel's attacks on Lebanon will last a week, "two at the most," Oppenheimer says, "because our government is smart enough and doesn't want to get in the Lebanon mud."
Frank notwithstanding, the intervention seems to be very popular in Israel. And there are Shi'ites and then there are Shi'ites. It no more tells us something useful about both the Iranian Mullahs and Ayatollah Sistani to note that both are Shi'a than it does to note that George Bush and Tariq Azis are both Christian. What I'm still hooked up on is why go after Lebanon, which can't do anything about Hisbollah, rather than flatten Damascus, which can.
Posted by: David Cohen at July 17, 2006 8:46 AMThe only people who can do anything about Hezbollah are Lebanese voters and this isn't going to make the party less popular with the Shi'ite plurality.
Posted by: oj at July 17, 2006 8:52 AM