July 7, 2006

AT LEAST HE STILL HAS ARIZONA:

Giuliani's Convictions Could Win Over Republicans (Mark Davis, 7 July 2006, RCP)

I still don't believe Mr. McCain will be the '08 nominee, but his loyal support for the war has healed some distaste that the GOP base has had for him since he challenged Mr. Bush six years ago. His disconnect with many Republicans on overhauling campaign finance is still an anvil around his prospects, but I can no longer write him off...
As for Mr. Giuliani, I used to say that he won't run and couldn't win if he did. The gay-friendly, abortion-rights-supporting ex-New York mayor whose legacy includes an embrace of gun control? It would seem highly unlikely...
Unless you were in a room with me at the Hotel Crescent Court last month as the Dallas County Republican Party welcomed Mr. Giuliani to a fundraiser also heralding local congressional candidates...

Eyes are opening to the fact that Rudy is quietly laying the groundwork to trounce McCain. He's killing in the Deep Evangelical South and owns the Northeast. A few months in Callifornia and the Midwest will leave McCain with nothing but Arizona. I guess it turns out there are no real litmus tests for conservatives. Securing the Republican nomination is as simple as having unbeatable executive experience, a powerful emotional and ideological appeal to the center and not showing your disdain for the rest of your party every minute of your life.

Posted by Pepys at July 7, 2006 10:51 PM
Comments

The question is whether the Evangelicals will still support Rudy when the opposition ... any serious opposition ... starts pounding on his "values" vulnerabilities. If they do continue to support him, it's Katie-bar-the-door.

Posted by: ghostcat at July 7, 2006 11:58 PM

A Giuliani/Clinton debate would be better than Hagler/Hearns.

Giuliani as Hagler, of course.

No offense, Tommy.

Posted by: Pepys at July 8, 2006 12:11 AM

Ghost: Aren't most folks well aware already of Rudy's "values vulnerabilities"? All he needs in my opinion is to come home on the abortion issue.

McCain folks who've been spinning hard for what -- six months or more? wasn't it early in the year that all sorts of articles began appearing about how conservatives love him, what a strong candidate he is? -- have been touting strong polls for their man in Iowa and NH. Could Senator McCampaignFinance win both of those trivial states in the primary only to be trounced in the south and the rest of the northeast?

Posted by: Jim in Chicago at July 8, 2006 1:24 AM

Jim in Chicago is right. I feel quite safe saying the following: No openly pro-choice candidate will win the 2008 Republican presidential nomination.

Posted by: Matt Murphy at July 8, 2006 2:05 AM

Matt: As an Arizonian, I will say I won't support Johm McCain for anything.

Posted by: jd watson [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 8, 2006 4:45 AM

Rove and McKinnon will disassemble Rudy in 30 second bits. Most people have no idea where he stands on social issues nor that he shared an apartment with a gay couple.

Posted by: oj at July 8, 2006 9:01 AM

But it will be fun to see Rudy "disassembled" in the general by the Left for behaving in the way they want people to behave, then accuse him of hypocrisy for having his "come-to-Jesus" moment. Their main bumpersticker/slogan would, in effect, be, "He's one of us!", and they'd mean that in a bad way.

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at July 8, 2006 9:57 AM

Pepys, you mean a candidate with executive experience might challenge the great paper tiger McCain? don't tell OJ, McCain's his golden calf

Posted by: Palmcroft at July 8, 2006 12:20 PM

Hey, the Pepys-Orrin debate might be BETTER than Hagler-Hearns!

Anyway, Rudy will win. He's smart and McCain...isn't. Any politicain who tried to win the GOP nomination by running left, as McCain did in 2000, has a single-digit political IQ.

Posted by: Casey Abell at July 8, 2006 5:38 PM

The gay couple took him in when his wife took over the mayoral residence, Gracie Mansion, would be great assets if they would campaign for him.

Posted by: erp at July 8, 2006 5:41 PM
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