NATURALLY RED STATES WON'T STAY BLUE:

Dems slipping in state races (Susan Page, 6/12/06, USA TODAY)

In Michigan, Gov. Jennifer Granholm — the darling of Democrats when she was elected in 2002 — is now in a dead heat with Republican challenger Dick DeVos. A statewide poll last month by EPIC-MRA put him at 46%, her at 45%. Last fall, she had held a 23-point lead.

"Michiganders are furious at life, so they're furious at the governor," says Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. DeVos, former president of Amway, has been airing TV ads since February that tap voters' discontent over the state's direction and its battered economy. The state has the nation's second-highest unemployment rate, after Mississippi.

In Wisconsin, Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle is increasingly vulnerable, in part because of ethics controversies in his administration. In a statewide Strategic Vision poll in April, Doyle was at 45%; U.S. Rep. Mark Green, a Republican hopeful, was at 43%.

"At the beginning of the cycle, Democrats were expected to make significant gains," says Jennifer Duffy, who tracks governors' races for the non-partisan Cook Political Report. "Now they will likely make gains, but they won't be nearly what was originally thought."

Among the nation's 10 biggest states, Democratic prospects since the beginning of the year have gotten tougher in four — California, Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania — and better in one, New York.

The realigning is hardly done.

Posted by Orrin Judd at June 12, 2006 8:07 AM