June 9, 2006
GAS IS THE NEW BREAD:
Misery Index (James K. Glassman, 09 Jun 2006, Tech Central Station)
The global economy is roaring. "For the first time since 1969," reports a newsletter I rely on, Bridgewater Daily Observations, "not a single country in the world has had negative year-over-year growth."Overall, the world economy is rising at a 4.4 percent rate, after inflation. At that pace, Gross Domestic Product doubles in 17 years, quadruples in less than a generation and rises by a factor of about 30 in a lifetime. Imagine the average nation being 30 times richer than it is today!
It's no secret why this is happening. Nearly half the world's population -- China, India, the former Soviet Union and its satellites -- has moved within 20 years from an anachronistic economic system that doesn't work, like autarky or communism -- toward a free-market system that does. Certainly, these nations haven't fully embraced an open, competitive system with limited government involvement yet -- but, then again, neither has Europe, or the United States for that matter. The vector, however, is clear, and a growing world economy is very, very good for us.
U.S. growth for 2005 was 3.5 percent -- slower than the world as a whole but still quite brisk and much brisker than Europe -- and the consensus of economists is predicting roughly the same for the year ahead. The numbers are staggering. In the past year, including modest inflation, America's output of goods and services has increased by nearly $1 trillion - or about $10,000 for every family. In the last five months alone, the U.S. has created 1 million net new jobs.
But if the U.S. economy is doing so well, why aren't Americans happier about it? Surveys show they are pretty miserable.
It'd be fairly hard to disaggregate, but it has to be 80-90% about the price of a gallon of gas. Posted by Orrin Judd at June 9, 2006 12:22 PM
More likely, it is all the negativity from the MSM.
Then too, don't forget that being asked whether you like the direction of the country may or may not mean you want to move to the left or the right.
Theere are many things I do not like about the direction of the country--crooked baseball caps, predator reintroduction, savage music, that sort of thing--which might lead me to so indicate on a poll, but that does not mean I am pining for a chance to run out and vote for Hanoi John.
Posted by: Lou Gots at June 9, 2006 2:05 PM‘Cash ‘til Payday’ shops opening on every street, resetting ARMs, increasing mortgage (zero interest and negative amortization) defaults, increasing property tax and insurance rates, and stagnant real wages, while less visible than gasoline prices, are the underlying cause of the discontent.
Our booming economy is like Japan’s economy in 1989. They are just now emerging from 15 years of ‘bad’ deflation.
While we're in our twenty-fifth of good deflation.
Posted by: oj at June 9, 2006 4:25 PMThese polls are nonsense. People aren't miserable. They may grumble at the gas pump or when they open their insurance or electricity bills, but that's fleeting irritation, not misery.
I've been forced out of my bunker these past weeks and have taken the opportunity to check out our fellow Americans. Everyone looks happy, well dressed and prosperous. Even young persons have nice cars. There are very few old clunkers on the road and those are invariably driven by aging hippies. Other aging hippies in even worse shape are still standing along the side of the road trying to hitch a ride -- some even hold signs that say, work for food.
Makes me laugh out loud when I see them.
TGN:
Ah, the Democratic MSM script. Too bad nobody is buying it. Bartlett & Steele tried discrediting the economy in 1986; Barbara Ehrenreich a few years ago. The Nation doesn't fuss about economics that much anymore, because Katrina Van Den Heuval is an heiress.
Your barrel is empty. Give up and go home.
Posted by: jim hamlen at June 9, 2006 7:48 PMerp, Agree about the nice cars. OJ must be pissed.
Posted by: jdkelly at June 9, 2006 7:58 PMerp:
"There are very few old clunkers on the road and those are invariably driven by aging hippies."
Hey, don't lump us cheapskates in with the aging hippies.
Posted by: Bryan at June 9, 2006 10:12 PMBryan, I'm hurt that you would think I would equate cars of a certain age with clunkers. Clunkers are cars whose owners don't revere them, don't tend to them lovingly and don't appreciate their years of selfless service.
We just lost our 18 year old Dodge Caravan, an integral member of the family, which still looked great (no rust) and drove great right up until it lost its transmission. We gave it to a Boy's Club to tinker with and we think it's happy there being among young people who will love it as we did. Our new car is a seven year old Chrysler Concorde which looks and rides better than any other car on the road.
FYI - Re: Hippies. I'm going to upgrade aging hippie to agèd hippie. Now that they're over sixty and looking more like eighty, I believe the aging process to be complete.
Somehow, I think the statement about no negative growth is wrong. What about Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Nepal, and places like Iran (?), Belarus, and Italy, where probably half the economy is off the books?
Posted by: ratbert at June 10, 2006 9:42 AMhow could GDP be down in states that have oil?
Posted by: oj at June 10, 2006 9:58 AMOil that is in the ground is worth exactly what?
VZ and Nigeria are struggling to keep up. I did not list Russia or Mexico, because they are running flat out today.
Posted by: ratbert at June 10, 2006 10:29 PMQuite a bit.
Posted by: oj at June 10, 2006 10:47 PM