I just brought my Prius home last night -- fresh off the boat from Japan. Funny that this was the 1st post I saw this morning. I know you've got some hybrid-haters on board, but this car is sweet. 60 miles to the gallon, MP3 player, 6-CD disc player, GPS navigation system. If I could only get brothers judd on the screen, life would be complete.

Melissa:
I was thinking about getting one of those, but I have some concerns about the effacacy on the highway. Most of my commute is via interstate highway, and I've heard that hybrids don't really save you any money unless you're in stop-and-go city traffic.

That was a concern of mine, too. I'm also mainly a highway driver (>55 mph). Even so, 40-45 mpg is better than my RAV, and it's much more fun to drive. Peppy yet incredibly quiet.

Check out the Ford Excape hybrid. Don't know about right now, but there were incentives in the last couple of months so there must be plenty in stock.

I find it strange that no one has developed a "Hybrid Kit" for newer cars.

With demand this high, it shouldn't be too hard to develop a way to turn a car into a hybird. Though harder to actually accomplish than simply to think about, the fact is that it should be possible.

Of course, the response of most will be "if it was a good idea, GM or Ford or VW would have already thought of it."

This is exactly wrong. Such institutions are simply incapable of thinking about such things. Apparently, with the death of generalism (people with a broad base of knowledge), we are all too happy to leave the drones at GM think about cars for us....

The CIA to think about our security

The NEA to think about our children...

etc etc

Bruno,

That sort of innovation in autos nowadays comes from the aftermarket racing folks. You know, the ones who want to sell you your own kit for running on Nitrous Oxide?

No one wants to make money helping customers save money. Funny how that works.

Bruno, I know you have the best of intentions, but ...

With demand this high, it shouldn't be too hard to develop a way to turn a car into a hybird. Though harder to actually accomplish than simply to think about, the fact is that it should be possible.

Sure it can be done. It doesn't necessarily make sense to do it. It's not like bolting on a different muffler, or a stupid wing on the back, or even nitrous kits or a super charger.

You have to take out the transmission, fit in the generator and electric motor and the batteries. Also change out the braking system to include the regenerative brakes.

And for best effect, you need a minimized 4-cylinder engine.

And every kit would probably have to be designed for each type of car.

I'm just guessing, that even if these kits were mass produced they would cost $10-$15,000 install. Is that kind of money worth an extra 10-15 miles to the gallon?

Bruno:
You equating the lack of aftermarket addons to convert regular cars to hybrids to the CIA's inability to predict the sun coming up in the east? Buh? Perhaps hybrid technology is so new that aftermarket addons simply haven't come out yet. It took 20 years for people to start putting rocket engines on passenger cars, after all.
I really don't see the connection to the CIA or the NEA. I think converting regular cars to hybrids may be a good idea, but I've got better things to do than spend my time trying to figure it out. Besides, the cost in labor and parts to convert a gas-powered car is probably going to be a lot more than it would cost just to go out and buy a hybrid. Ever try to convert an automatic to standard shift? It's a total pain and in the long run its a lot less frustrating just to go buy a standard. I can imagine that rejiggering a '56 Chevy to be a hybrid can be done, but what would be the point? It's sort of like those guys who cobble together monster motorcycles from several different bikes. They're neat conversation pieces, but I don't think those guys who do that are going to say that everyone should be doing it or that they would imply that those who don't are "sheeple" in thrall to the CIA and NEA. Apples to oranges. Of course, you must be working on a conversion project right now, right? How's that coming?

Buying the current crop of hybrids is a lifestyle statement, period. If they churned out more of them, the current buyers would be turned off because it would mean they wouldn't stand out from the crowd anymore (similarly, if the design were similar to non-hybrids, demand would plunge), and those who aren't buying wouldn't pick up the slack because they make no economic sense at present.

Buying HUMMERs and SUVs are also a lifestyle choice that doesn't make economic sense. Yet they perpetuate terrorist oil funding and Hybrids don't.

I'm sure some of the demand is from people who simply want a relatively rare, trendy car, but all the drivers of hybrids I know would be thrilled if the entire industry went over.

Enough demand will create economies of scale, end the supply shortage, and eventually the car price will make sense from a purely economic standpoint.

"Buying the current crop of hybrids is a lifestyle statement, period."

Got any evidence to back up that assertion? Melissa says she gets 40-45 mpg on the highway. That sounds pretty darned good to me. The only pure internal combustion vehicle I've driven that tops it only has two wheels.

Bryan: Do the math. I drive an '02 Saturn and get ~30-35 mpg. My commute is 30 miles each way, and so my average yearly expense on gas is something like:
(30 miles/commute)*(10 commutes/week)*(52 weeks/yr)*(1 gallon/30 miles)*($3/gallon)=$1560/yr
Let's take Melissa's 45mpg number (I've chosen the low end of my mpg and the high end of hers, to maximize the difference, and chosen $3/gallon to maximize the cost):
(30 miles/commute)*(10 commutes/week)*(52 weeks/yr)*(1 gallon/45 miles)*($3/gallon)=$1040/yr
So she'd save ~$500/yr (only ~$350 if gas is $2/gallon). And how much more has she paid for the car? $5K (so that it would take her well over a decade to "save" any money)? And if something goes wrong with the engine, can her corner mechanic even attempt to fix it?

Was that so hard?

The interesting case will be the 2007 Camry Hybrid, IMO. It's loaded out about like the XLE (which is the high-end model). It costs pretty much the same; it's more expensive than the 4 cylinder and less than the 6 cylinder. Meanwhile the horsepower is also in the middle. Aside from uncertainty about the new technology, it's basically the same car at the same price, but with 37-49% better mileage.

And if you don't wait too long you can get a $2600 federal tax credit.

Of course if it's all about saving money, then you're better off getting the CE or base LE (unless you're driving 50,000 miles a year). Of course if its all about saving money, then skip on Toyota and get a Kia or Hyudai.

Here's a comparison of four new SUV hybrids (actually three, since the Mazda Tribute is the Mercury Mariner is the Ford Escape, and the latter isn't even on the list). Compared to the V6 Mariner I bought last year, you're looking at about a 9 mpg savings on the highway and roughly 11-12 mpg in the city, based on what I've been getting, while the added base cost for the vehicle is in the $6,000 range. With the driving I do (mostly highway), the fuel savings based on $3 a gallon gas at that price would come to between $1,000 and $1,200 a year, so if I keep the SUV for five or more years, the hybrid breaks even or slightly pulls ahead -- depending on how long the vehicle's battery system lasts and what the cost is if it has to be replaced.

If I did more city driving, then the hybrid comes closer to earning its cost back before it's time to trade in the SUV for a new vehicle. So until the costs of hybrids come more into line with regular gas engines, they make more sense as commuter cars than as vehicles that will be doing a lot of high-speed travel on interstates.

John: But if you do more city driving, the amount of miles you drive must go way down, so while the relative saving over a non-hybrid goes up, the actual dollar amount you save probably actually decreases, doesn't it?

b --

That probably depends on the size of your metro area. Cities with decent road systems, populations of under 750,000 or so and suburbs stretching out for no more than 30 miles from city center likely do less driving. Those in the mega-cities with commutes of 75-100 miles in some cases through mostly rush hour traffic (some people working in New York nowadays are communting from the eastern Pocanos in Pennsylvania and spending 5-7 hours a day in their vehicle) would be the most likely to benefit from their hybrids, since their drives would be long distances at relatively slow speeds.

Aren't the batteries expensive to replace, as well? And what does one do with the used one?

$5000 can earn interest at 4.5%, which is $225 a year. So Melissa's annual savings is really only ($500 - $225) or $275.

5000/275 = 18 years to break even. Unless, of course, she has to replace the battery before the 18 years are up.

People touting these things ALWAYS ignore the time value of money, and they NEVER factor in the interest that could be earned on the extra money that the hybrid costs.

So, yes, a hybrid is nothing but a lifestyle choice.

My problem with the hybrids is that I am simply unconvinced on the matter of power. Being the [sarcasim] gun-toting, redneck conservative [/sarcasm] that I am, I'd like to own a truck, especially one with a big diesel engine. I've heard interesting things about bio-diesel, but again, I wonder about the power issue. I'd rather use bio-diesel then a gas-electric hybrid (why reduce gas consumption a little when you can cut it right out?) but this is a theoretical stance that I don't really have enough information to support, yet. I look forward to future developments.

Melissa: Use your Prius in good health. If you like it, what does it matter what other people think.

Now, as to why hybrids are not a solution to the oil crisis (which isn't really a crisis).

1. The Prius and other hybrids are priced low, at or around cost. If they were priced like other cars, they would cost about $10k more and would never pay back the initial investment.

2. 100% of the energy used by the Prius comes from petroleum.

3. Unless by "kit" you mean replacing the entire power train, starting with the engine and cutting off large portions of larger cars, a hybrid kit is impossible.

4. At highway speeds, hybrids are powered entirely by the gasoline engine. They may get good mileage, but it has nothing to do with hybrid technology. What "hybrid" means is that the car has an electric motor and a gasoline engine. The electric motor works off batteries that are, in turn, charged by the gasoline engine. The electric motor keeps the car "on" when idling or at parking lot speeds while the gasoline engine is off. The car then automatically switches over to the gasoline engine when it needs to.

5. Only the Prius can even theoretically repay its additional cost in 5 years, and that's mostly because Toyota warranties -- that is, subsidizes the expected replacement of -- the batteries for 8 years.

The Prius and other hybrids are priced low, at or around cost. If they were priced like other cars, they would cost about $10k more and would never pay back the initial investment.

I've just been pricing new cars, and mid-range sedans don't have that high a mark-up.
The Prius might cost $ 2k more, given your scenario.

Noam: I'm not talking about the (somewhat fictional) dealer markup over invoice. I'm talking about Toyota's markup. Toyota claims to break even on the Prius, although they're almost certainly ignoring overhead and past r and d costs. (On the other hand, the whole point of the Prius is free advertising and brand building.) The numbers are a little hard to come by, but a non-hybrid that cost Toyota as much to build as the Prius would probably cost about $30,000.