April 27, 2006


Conservatives grow more popular (ALEXANDER PANETTA, 4/27/06, Canadian Press)

The Conservatives have seized a commanding lead in popularity over the Liberals and inched into majority-government territory, says a new survey released Wednesday.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Tories held a 15-point advantage over the Liberals and broke past what is considered the benchmark for winning a majority government, says the Decima poll.

Nothing's impossible in politics, but the idea that Democrats will sweep the GOP from office in November requires a belief that America will trand to the Left at a time when every other nation in the Anglosphere, plus Germany, Poland, & Japan are trending Right. Theoretically possible, but it has never happened before.

No Outcry About Lobby Scandal, Lawmakers Say (Jeffrey H. Birnbaum and Thomas B. Edsall, 4/27/06,
Washington Post)

The scandal surrounding disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff has been a Washington obsession for months, but Republican lawmakers who returned from a two-week recess this week said they felt free to pass a relatively tepid ethics bill because their constituents rarely mention the issue.

One key component of the inside the Beltway belief in a Democrat takeover is the insistence that 1994 was about scandal, not about ideas. The opposite is, of course, the case

Posted by Orrin Judd at April 27, 2006 10:09 AM

None of this means that Republicans (along with the help of the media) can't blow it.

They have run out of ideas themselves (or appear to be uninterested in passing any of them).

Democrats don't realize that this is much less like 1994 and much more like 1998, when the oppostion had nothing but hate for the President.

The real problem is that the Rep. is stupid enough to believe it's bad press, and doubles down on the stupidity by acting in ways that reinforces the bad press.

Posted by: Bruno at April 27, 2006 10:44 AM


No, they haven't. They just need to win a few seats in the Senate to finish off the big job--the Ownership Society and Neoconomics. Meanwhile they continue to forge ahead with major legislation like the immigration bill.

Posted by: oj at April 27, 2006 10:49 AM

It also requires a belief that everything is going to stand still the next few months, or even better, that trends that have been going against the Dems for over a decade will magically and suddenly reverse during that time. And these are the same people who make fun of the religious for having silly beliefs.

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at April 27, 2006 11:16 AM

I don't think the Democrats will sweep the Republicans out of office, but at this moment I'd expect a setback for the GOP and for it to lose seats. A lot can happen in the next few months, so we'll see.

Posted by: Chris Durnell at April 27, 2006 11:36 AM

I actually received a survey from Frist's office on where I stand, along w/asking for a contribution, of course.

I filled it in, cold-hearted B that I am, cut the budget including Vet's programs, education, etc.

I also wrote on the back cowards and get ready for censure.

IF I receive 1 - 2 of those a year, I'm surprised. So, they're running scared.

Posted by: Sandy P at April 27, 2006 11:46 AM

If the special election in California is anything to go on, I think it is going to be a status quo election. Rep. Cunningham was out because of corruption, the Democrats were running on the corruption theme in Washington and nationally, and yet the Democrat candidate couldn't change percentages from the last election.

Methinks that these kinds of campaigns (corruption) tends to hole both parties boats.

Posted by: Mikey at April 28, 2006 8:15 AM

Corruption is only a major issue when a major figure is EXPOSED. A few House members are not major figures, and dealings with lobbyists are not major corruption (at least in terms of outright felony crimes). Duke Cunningham was major corruption, but it appears Mollohan and Jefferson are in the same boat. The Abramoff deal is going down the memory hole, because Harry Reid and Debbie Stabenow are tied to him up to their necks.

And, corruption can have a strange non-impact on elections, too - if Judy Topinka (?) and Ken Blackwell win their races, corruption in the GOP won't have hurt them, eh? It never hurt Edwin Edwards (until the end), it never really hurt the Clintons, it didn't affect Tom Daschle much (until the end), and like that. The public doesn't remember Jim Wright and Tony Coelho.

Posted by: jim hamlen at April 28, 2006 11:13 AM

And, by definition, there are no major figures to expose in Congress.

Posted by: oj at April 28, 2006 11:26 AM