April 24, 2006


New Orleans mayor loses support of whites (MICHELLE ROBERTS, 4/24/06, Chicago Sun-Times)

Nagin garnered less than 10 percent of the vote in predominantly white precincts, according to GCR & Associates Inc., a consulting firm analyzing demographic data for the New Orleans Redevelopment Authority.

He received 65 percent or more of the vote in predominantly black neighborhoods, the consultant found.

Those divisions are all the more important because the city is more white than it was before Katrina hit Aug. 29: Fewer than half the city's 455,000 residents have returned, and most of those displaced are black. Only about 20,000 evacuees participated in Saturday's election by absentee ballot, fax and satellite stations, although an unknown number returned to the city to vote in person.

Nearly half of voters in predominantly white areas turned out, compared with about 30 percent of registered voters in black neighborhoods, which also tended to be the worst hit by flooding.

Landrieu, who is white, finished with 29 percent of the overall vote to Nagin's 38 percent. He finished second in black neighborhoods to Nagin and second in white neighborhoods to overall third-place finisher Ron Forman, bolstering his claims that he can help bring together racially diverse groups to help New Orleans emerge from the devastation left by Hurricane Katrina.

Hard to see how the Mayor adds many votes to his total, especially since turnout tends to drop in run-offs.

Posted by Orrin Judd at April 24, 2006 9:10 AM

Nagin's in the same boat as Francine Busby in the San Diego special election to replace Duke Cunningham -- first in the primary field, but likely at or near his vote ceiling, based on the initial polling results.

Posted by: John at April 24, 2006 9:50 AM

I think the question is how much of the 'Machine' have they rebuilt. A before and after vote could prove very embarrassing for the democrats. A new face on the ticket would make explaining the numbers a lot easier if the machine can't provide.

Posted by: Robert Mitchell Jr. at April 24, 2006 10:52 AM

I was born and raised in New Orleans, and still live nearby, but not where I'd be eligible to vote there. You'd have to be a local to know that Nagin was a Republican before he decided to run for mayor in 2002. He knew that he had to switch to being a Democrat to have any chance at winning. Furthermore, Landrieu is presently considered to be ther far more liberal candidate in this run-off election. Too bad for Nagin for his "chocolate city" remark. It grealy alienated many of his former white, conservative base. Perhaps his disastrous handling of the hurricane crisis cost him their support as well.

Posted by: afhebert at April 24, 2006 11:32 AM

afhebert, that's very interesting. Never knew that history about Nagin.

Posted by: RC at April 24, 2006 1:00 PM