A LONG WAY TO THE THIRD WAY:

Yes, the Tories could lose. It's why they need Cameron (Matthew d'Ancona, 09/04/2006, Daily Telegraph)

As the Blair era draws to a close, it is easily forgotten how much pain was necessary to make it possible in the first place. In a recent Guardian interview, Peter Mandelson admitted that he gravely underestimated the scale of the task. "In the 1980s, I tried to effect these changes by means of a spray job," he said, "putting out the red rose instead of the red flag, changing the colours, the communications, the style of the party with words rather than deeds. And the country saw through it."

The message of the Conservatives' spring forum - explicitly so - was that the modernisation of the Tory party is also in its infancy. Since David Cameron's election on December 6, all Conservative energies have been devoted to the (absolutely essential) task of transforming public perceptions of Tory motives. There is no point calling for low taxes, robustness in Europe or a new immigration policy until the voters believe that your reasons for doing so are public-spirited, rather than selfish, bigoted, or otherwise dodgy. And credit where it is due: most polls - public and private - suggest that Mr Cameron has gone a long way in a short time to decontaminating the Tory brand.

The problem, however, is that, while the public like what they see of the young Conservative leader, they are much less persuaded that his party has changed. As Francis Maude, the Tory chairman, said on Friday, the Conservatives cannot "expect David Cameron to carry the entire burden of persuading people that we've changed" and "contract it all out to the leader".

The reality is that the other Third Way leaders--Thatcher, Blair, Clinton, Gingrich, Bush, Howard--have had only varying levels of unsuccess in converting their parties to the only politics that will work electorally. We're in the early stages still of what will be significant political realignments throughout at least the Anglosphere.

Posted by Orrin Judd at April 9, 2006 8:15 AM