April 12, 2006
A DISTANT MIRROR
America's problem isn't immigration - it's education (Niall Ferguson, The Telegraph, April 9th, 2006)
The last time globalisation died, some historians say, it was an American backlash that killed it. A century ago the world economy was in many ways just as integrated as it is today. Migration rates were comparably high, as was trade in relation to output. Capital flows today are bigger in relative terms, but a century ago they were more evenly distributed between rich and poor countries. After 1914, however, globalisation fell apart, and by the 1930s the world economy had fragmented - with disastrous consequences for growth and employment.The great disruption caused by the First World War certainly did a large part of the damage, sinking thousands of tons of merchant shipping and severing international telegraph cables. Even before war came, however, globalisation was already dying the death of a thousand legislative cuts. As early as 1882, the US had introduced the Chinese Exclusion Act, the first of a series of measures designed to restrict immigration to white Europeans.
Quotas for other ethnic groups were introduced between the wars - one reason Jews found it hard to find refuge from Nazi Germany - so that by the mid 1930s the flow of new immigrants to the US had all but dried up.
The same was true of trade. Never wholly committed to free trade in the 19th century, the US sharply raised tariffs between the wars. The protectionist Smoot-Hawley trade bill, enacted in June 1930, dealt a lethal blow to business confidence, compounding the damage done by the Wall Street Crash.
Proponents of a new generation of anti-global measures claim to want to protect vulnerable native groups from the ravages of competition. They point to studies that show the biggest losers from immigration to be high school dropouts. Other evidence shows that it's unskilled blue collar workers who are most likely to lose out from free trade with China. Yet it would be an error to blame the widening inequalities of American societies on globalisation and to seek to rectify matters with the old, failed policies of nativism and protectionism. American inequality has much more to do with not-very-progressive taxation and patchy welfare provision than with immigration and free trade, much less free capital movement (without which, let's not forget, American consumption would have to be quite drastically reduced, given the vast size of the US current account deficit).
The aggregate economic benefits of attracting the economically ambitious from around the world are real. In a flexible labour market like that of the US, immigrants play a key role. In ageing societies, such as those of Western Europe, immigrants are especially needed. True, it's not clear if Europe's over-regulated labour markets can successfully absorb and exploit their youthful energies, but that doesn't change the basic economic logic. An even more liberalised global labour market would boost economic growth all round. Restrictions on migration would cut it.
It makes no sense to jeopardise the benefits of globalisation to protect the employment prospects of high-school dropouts. So here's a modest counter-proposal for the House of Representatives. Instead of building an expensive, hideous and probably ineffective new Iron Curtain, why not use the money to get this simple message across to the kids in America's high schools: If you flunk, you're sunk. Yes, boys and girls, academic achievement is the only route to decent employment in an economy at the top of the technological food chain. Drop out of education without qualifications, and you'll be lucky to get a job alongside the Mexicans picking fruit or stacking shelves.
Sounds kind of harsh, I know. But a second Great Depression sounds a lot harsher.
One of the psychological confusions in the nativist position is that it leads folks to think that, in order to express their loyalty and patriotism, they must side against hard-working, determined immigrants in favour of people they wouldn't trust to wash their cars.
Why do people seem unable to distinguish between border security and immigration?
What effect would building a wall have on those immigrants (legal and illegal) currently in the US?
How would granting amnesty or requiring deportation effect border security?
Build a wall and let'em all in.
Posted by: Pepys at April 12, 2006 1:49 PMPepys:
I think they do, seriously. No one argues the law is irrelevant or against regularizing things legally, but it's like the old adage about your having a problem if you owe your bank a thousand dollars, but the bank having the problem if you owe it a million. When there are ten million citizen-wannabes in the country who are violating immigration law, but who are in demand and contributing productively for the most part, isn't it reasonable to start by questionning the law rather than chasing the malefactors?
And please remember how, like everything else in the modern institutional world, immigration law, regulations, bureaucracy and enforcement have all become so politicized, irrationally bureaucratic and driven by an ethos far removed from what anyone would see as basic common sense that the argument that these illegals are guilty of any moral or ethical wrong corresponding to their legal violations is harder and harder to make. I presume that is why they are marching.
Posted by: Peter B at April 12, 2006 2:00 PMI think there's a number of entangled threads to the issue.
-- One element is border security: it's hard to keep the bad guys out if you have no control over entry and exit, and that's a serious issue. (Major plot point in the new Tom Clancy book is an alliance between the Columbian drug cartels and their coyotes and the Palestinians, which leads to the smuggling of jihadis into the country via Mexico.)
-- There is the issue of immigration itself. Personally, if the world's best and brightest want to come here and become Americans, I'm all for it. Others may feel different, of course.
-- Yet another element to the problem is a scleretic, inefficient, trap-laden system of legal immigration that seems bound and determined to keep everyone who isn't Mohammed Atta out of the country, no matter how desirable their presence here is. It's probably a net incentive to illegal immigration.
-- Finally, there seems to be a whole cluster of strong reactions to illegals based on their race and ethnicity: the Tancredo/Buchanan crowd that doesn't want Mexicans in country because they're Mexican (but then openly wish there were more hard-working, socially-conservative Catholics in the country); the Ruy Texerias who want them in-country because, being Mexicans, they are believed to be demographically destined to become straight-ticket Democrats (despite the fact that the Democrats are the party of abortion, buggery, and other peculiar institutions repulsive to socially-conservative Catholics); the La Raza crew that want foot soldiers for their reconquista fantasies (despite the fact that most Mexicans who come here are coming here to get away from the kind of people who end up in La Raza); and the rest of us, who don't have any particular categorist feeling one way or the other.
-- Then you have Mexico itself, which seems to be using northbound immigration (legal or otherwise) as a way to avoid confronting its own social issues--something we probably do not want to encourage.
The point of all this rambling is that there's no single "immigration issue," there's multiple intertwined issues that really can't be dealt with unless they're disaggregated. There's also a lot of people who have a stake in the debate who don't want to disaggregate these issues for their own partisan reasons.
Posted by: Mike Morley at April 12, 2006 2:47 PMWe have to be diligent and keep our eyes open for the Smoots and Hawleys of today. They are out there.
Posted by: jim hamlen at April 12, 2006 4:34 PMPeter B;
Actually, from what I've read, the marches were organized by International ANSWER, an openly Stalinist organization.
Posted by: Annoying Old Guy at April 12, 2006 5:09 PMAOG:
Thanks. I should have known better than to toss out a line like that.
Posted by: Peter B at April 12, 2006 5:16 PMMike M: I agree. This is really a bunch of tangentially related issues that need to be addressed individually. I suspect that both sides realize this and conflate everything to preserve the status quo. I especially like your point about the difficulty of legal immigration to this country. Like many bad things, the current system is the child of the far left and far right.
Posted by: Pepys at April 12, 2006 5:24 PMI agree with building a wall and then letting them all in. But terrorists apparently want to come in through legal channels and thus far have all been able to find a way.
Posted by: David Cohen at April 12, 2006 6:16 PMPeter B:
The way these perverse incentives work can be illustrated by considering a small offshoot of the immigration situation, which concerns foreigners wishing to obtain visas simply for trips (a subject I know a bit about since I work for a hotel company).
Essentially, the number of places (consulates, etc.) you can go to get visas is very limited, and you may have to travel 300 or 400 miles to get there, just to fill out irritating and intrusive paperwork. The people who interview you are usually low-level civil servants who do this job for a few years in hopes of advancing elsewhere, and they may interview hundreds of people a day, usually for two or three minutes each.
As a result of the travel and hassle involved, lots of people who legitimately wish to travel to America decide to go elsewhere. Meanwhile, the few screwballs who really are terrorists certainly won't be stopped by a 400-mile trip to fill out cumbersome paperwork. Then they receive a perfunctory interview and we pass them through. Examining the numerous errors on the forms filled out by the 9/11 terrorists, as National Review did a few years ago, is good for a grim laugh.
The perverse end result is recognizable to any student of government activity: the good guys are kept out and the bad guys get in.
Posted by: Matt Murphy at April 12, 2006 8:34 PMAre we really worried about terrorists coming in from Mexico? Like David said, isn't it the legal channels we should be concerned with?
You'll notice that our elites limit visas for professionals to 65,000 per year. If the jobs of politicians, pundits and professionals were at risk, they'd be singing a different tune.
When the wages of working Americans are artificially depressed like this, eventually they will demand massive new social spending to compensate; "free" health care, larger Earned Income tax credits, etc.
We could come to a point where Latinos comprise a plurality or even a majority--with racial preferences intact. Then we're back to a Jim Crow situation.
Living out west, I've worked with a lot of Mexicans and my impression is generally favorable. But I've also seen them act as trashy as any other hue of the Multicultural Trash Rainbow. Having brown skin does not make one a saint.
We've already got too many people wandering around the country with no particular loyalty to America--they're called "leftists".
We've got to get a grip on this in a way that is fair to everybody.
Posted by: Noel at April 13, 2006 9:07 AMThey point to studies that show the biggest losers from immigration to be high school dropouts.
High school dropouts are losers, period! None of our policies should be driven by a desire to prop up this group of people. It would be tossing pearls before swine. These people don't vote, so who is seriously concerned about them?
Posted by: Robert Duquette at April 13, 2006 11:04 AMSo our policies should be driven by foreign high-school drop-outs instead?
I've known drop-outs who went to work and did well--and people with multiple degrees who are over-educated, lacking common sense and unable to tell right from wrong. We call them "professors".
Posted by: Noel at April 13, 2006 9:55 PM