March 4, 2006
THE WOBBLY IMPERIALIST:
What America needs now is a mighty blast of fire and Gladstone (Niall Ferguson, 05/03/2006, Daily Telegraph)
If President Bush were to run for re-election in 2008 it is not difficult to imagine the kind of devastating indictment that might be made of his foreign policy, not least because the terms of such an indictment were brilliantly anticipated more than a century ago.In 1878, William Ewart Gladstone, the only true genius among 19th century British politicians, came out of retirement to reclaim the leadership of the Liberal Party and unleash a lethal rhetorical assault against his arch-rival, the Conservative prime minister, Benjamin Disraeli. Gladstone's campaign to win the seat of Midlothian, is often said by historians to have ushered in a new era in modern politics. Never before had a British politician appealed so directly to the sentiments of ordinary voters.
In a series of marathon speeches to crowds numbering tens of thousands, Gladstone eviscerated Disraelian foreign policy as a disastrous mixture of vainglorious imperialism, cynical Realpolitik and fiscal improvidence. His speech of November 27, 1879, in which he set out his six principles of foreign policy, reads amazingly well today.
Gladstone made it clear - in his sixth and most important principle - that he regarded freedom as the foundation of a correct foreign policy. "The foreign policy of England," he declared, "should always be inspired by the love of freedom. There should be a sympathy with freedom, a desire to give it scope, founded not upon visionary ideas, but upon the long experience of many generations within the shores of this happy isleā¦" That is precisely what a Democratic challenger to President Bush would want to begin by saying: We share your aspiration to spread freedom.
But Gladstone's other five principles can be read today as an ideal first draft of the case against the practice of this administration's foreign policy.
Gladstone's first principle of foreign policy was, paradoxically but rightly, "good government at home" - to be precise, fiscal stability. By that measure, Bush's second term has been an almost unqualified failure. To cut taxes and run deficits in 2001, in the aftermath of a stock market crash, made sense. But to allow the federal government to continue to run deficits even as recovery has strengthened has left the United States dangerously dependent on foreign capital for its economic stability. A net external debt equivalent in magnitude to more than 20 per cent of gross domestic product is no laughing matter...
The likely next president, John McCain, is actually far more hawkish than George W. Bush, but the more interesting point to consider is that the American debt held by foreigners is essentially just their way of endorsing and funding the WoT. Posted by Orrin Judd at March 4, 2006 8:06 PM
It is just a little too early to be sure, but we may entertain the hypothesis that McCain has been, is being and lill be presented as the Great Left Hope of an alternative to Buhhhitler.
Thus the Republicans in 2008 retain their winning coalition while not losing the WoT fatigue--time-for-a-change vote.
Posted by: Lou Gots at March 4, 2006 8:21 PMSirs: This lefty Harvard professor goes to London to attack the President. Does he know that he is possessed by the BDS and therefore is simply a hack spouting? He needs therapy for he is a predictable loony. Go 'Gate
Posted by: Festus at March 4, 2006 8:48 PMOne recalls Gladstone, campaigned over the Afghan
debacle of Disraeli, yet partially due to his
investments in the Suez Canal Company, drove into
the Egyptian and later Sudanese quagmires.
I have read quite a few articles by this looney and his fellow reporter in the Daily Telegraph who comments on the Washington political scene. They are to the left of the WaPo, the NY Slime and the Globe. Bush can do nothing that these reporters will agree with and they write as many things against him as they can. I think this guy is originally a Brit. Can we send him back there and sent his WH correspondent for this newspaper back with him? They surely can say nothing good for the American way of life other than the LLL one. This group and Robert Fisk and the Guardian crew all belong together on a desert isle so that they do not cause any more damage than they already have.
Posted by: dick at March 4, 2006 9:16 PMAnd, of course, to compare the American federal system to the nineteenth century British parliamentary system is pure nincompoopery. A Prime Minister has much different powers and perogatives than an American president.
Not an apt comparison at all.
Compared to many American presidents, Mr. Bush will likely hold up quite well.
Mikey, Best since Lincoln.
Posted by: jdkelly at March 4, 2006 10:16 PMFor starters, the Telegraph is a reliably center-right paper. And Niall Ferguson is surprisingly bright for a Harvard professor; many of them are loons but Ferguson isn't one of them.
I think George W Bush is a fine president, the best in many decades. But that doesn't blind me to a number of failures of execution in foreign policy. Bush has never misrepresented the difficult path he's taken us, nor promised a quick and easy victory. But while the uniformed military has done a tremendous job, the civilian at State and CIA haven't always executed national policy with the skill it requires.
I'd also be happier if we had a better immigration policy, and if the federal government spent less money.
To summarize, Ferguson's criticisms are valid. And so is his point that the Democrats aren't in any position to make those criticisms their own.
The way I figure those sell us goods on credit generating such a high trade deficit on our part actually hold the short end of the stick. They hold our debt, our money which, if we are such a risk, would devaluate. That means foreigners are financing our consumptions. Doomsayers always say our economy would crash if the Chinese start selling the US dollar. I say bring it on. If the Chinese start mass selling, the US dollar plummets, value of Chinese US dollar reserve plummets with it. No sane and insane persons would do such a thing. Others say they would diversify their reserve in Euros. Yes, they should. But until the Germans and the French shape up, their Euro is actually more wobbly than our dollar. Our debt-to-GDP ratio is 65.4%, Euro zone is 79.7%. Those who criticize Bush always use absolute numbers. Our debt is out of sight, so is out GDP. (ps. I understand debt is not deficit, but things are not as bad as the MSM say, nor as good as we want.)
http://www.optimist123.com/optimist/
ic:
And the better comparison is of our debt at the end of WWII or the Brits after defeating Napoleon. By comparison, our debt as we reach the end of the Long War is laughably small.
Posted by: oj at March 5, 2006 8:02 AMJ:
The important thing isn't just that Ferguson is wrong, which he is, but that he's arguing against everything he's previously said about the value of Anglo-American imperialism. This is just his Fukuyama moment.
Posted by: oj at March 5, 2006 8:04 AMLou:
Wasn't W supposed to lose in '04 because of WoT fatigue?
Posted by: oj at March 5, 2006 8:07 AMFerguson's been sometimes dicey during the past year, but here's the final paragraph from his 1/05/06
article, The origins of the Great War of 2007 - and how it could have been prevented
By Niall Ferguson
"[...] Yet the historian is bound to ask whether or not the true significance of the 2007-2011 war was to vindicate the Bush administration's original principle of pre-emption. For, if that principle had been adhered to in 2006, Iran's nuclear bid might have been thwarted at minimal cost. And the Great Gulf War might never have happened."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml;jsessionid=3EY11ZPK0CBJPQFIQMFSFFOAVCBQ0IV0?xml=/opinion/2006/01/15/do1502.xml&sSheet=/opinion/2006/01/15/ixopinion.html
Ferguson's been sometimes dicey during the past year, but here's the final paragraph from his 1/05/06
article, The origins of the Great War of 2007 - and how it could have been prevented
By Niall Ferguson
"[...] Yet the historian is bound to ask whether or not the true significance of the 2007-2011 war was to vindicate the Bush administration's original principle of pre-emption. For, if that principle had been adhered to in 2006, Iran's nuclear bid might have been thwarted at minimal cost. And the Great Gulf War might never have happened."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml;jsessionid=3EY11ZPK0CBJPQFIQMFSFFOAVCBQ0IV0?xml=/opinion/2006/01/15/do1502.xml&sSheet=/opinion/2006/01/15/ixopinion.html
once the wot is completed successfully -- and it will be -- then no one will care at all about misteps along the way. bush will be seen as America's finest warrior president, perhaps our first. caeser americanus.
Posted by: toe at March 5, 2006 5:35 PM