February 10, 2006

MAIL IT IN (via David Hill, The Bronx):

FOX News Poll: Republicans Have Edge in Early 2008 Presidential Matchups (Dana Blanton, 2/09/06, Fox News)

A new FOX News poll finds that strong support from within their party as well as from majorities of independents helps Republican candidates outperform Democratic candidates in head-to-head presidential matchups.

It might be early, but it is still fun to look at hypothetical matchups between possible 2008 candidates. The poll asked about Republican candidates Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Democratic candidates Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry and New York Sen. Hillary Clinton.

Overall, the Republican candidates top their Democratic opponents, and while the two Republican candidates get about the same level of support in each trial heat, Clinton performs significantly better than 2004 Democratic presidential nominee Kerry.

Among registered voters, Giuliani bests Clinton by 11 percentage points and Kerry by 19 points. McCain tops Clinton by 13 percentage points and Kerry by 20 points. These results are in line with past FOX News results on these vote questions, with the only real change being a lessening of support for Kerry.

There are clear differences in the amount of support the candidates receive from within their own party. For instance, Giuliani and McCain capture between 84-89 percent of the Republican vote in the matchups, while Clinton captures 70-75 percent among Democrats and Kerry’s highest is 65 percent.

Note how easily McCain holds the base.

Posted by Orrin Judd at February 10, 2006 7:28 PM

It's also why you should take those polls about Bush's low popularity numbers with a grain of salt. A nation that's supposedly irate at its incumbent president isn't going to give his party a double-digit lead in the race to replace him, no matter how many times he and McCain have bumped heads.

Posted by: John at February 10, 2006 10:26 PM

"It's also why you should take [all] those polls [...] with a grain of salt."

Posted by: Genecis at February 11, 2006 11:00 AM
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