February 8, 2006

HERE WE GO AGAIN

Strong leads, dead ends in nuclear case on Iran (Dafna Linzer, Washington Post, February, 7th, 2006)

Iranian engineers have completed sophisticated drawings of a deep subterranean shaft, according to officials who have examined classified documents in the hands of U.S. intelligence for more than 20 months. Complete with remote-controlled sensors to measure pressure and heat, the plans for the 400-meter tunnel appear designed for an underground atomic test that might one day announce Tehran's arrival as a nuclear power, the officials said.

By the estimates of U.S. and allied intelligence analysts, that day remains as much as a decade away -- assuming that Iran applies the full measure of its scientific and industrial resources to the project and encounters no major technical hurdles. But whether Iran's leaders have reached that decision and what concrete progress the effort has made remain divisive questions among government analysts and U.N. inspectors.

In the three years since Iran was forced to acknowledge having a secret uranium-enrichment program, Western governments and the United Nations' nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, have amassed substantial evidence to test the Tehran government's assertion that it plans to build nothing more than peaceful nuclear power plants. Often circumstantial, usually ambiguous and always incomplete, the evidence has confounded efforts by policymakers, intelligence officials and U.S. allies to reach a confident judgment about Iran's intentions and a diplomatic solution to the crisis.

Drawings of the unbuilt test site, not disclosed publicly before, appear to U.S. officials to signal at least the ambition to test a nuclear explosive. But U.S. and U.N. experts who have studied them said the undated drawings do not clearly fit into a larger picture. Nowhere, for example, does the word "nuclear" appear on them.

Not only has the left succeeded in convincing much of the general public that the war on terror is a domestic policing operation entitling enemy combatants to the full benefit of legal process on the public dime, it has also succeeded in casting international relations with rogue states in the same light. Iran may violate treaties, hurl a constant stream of invective at the West, destabilize Iraq, call for Israel’s extinction, thumb it’s nose at the IAEA and play “Where’s Waldo” with its nuclear program, but none of that justifies a response unless and until there is concrete proof beyond a reasonable doubt that she is building a bomb (from plans clearly marked “nuclear”). Meanwhile, the West plays the prosecutor on whose shoulders rests the entire burden of proof while Iran enjoys the right to remain silent and challenge the jurisdiction of the court.

Posted by Peter Burnet at February 8, 2006 6:07 AM
Comments

Nowhere, for example, does the word "nuclear" appear on them.

I'm glad they have Inspector Clouseau on the case. We'll know they're up to no good when we find a folder labeled "Top Secret Plan to fool the infidels into thinking that we are pursuing peaceful nuclear research while we secretly build a bomb to annihilate the Great Satan and his hooknosed Jew toady for once and for all, praise be to Allah".

Posted by: Robert Duquette at February 8, 2006 11:25 AM

I totally disagree with this assessment. It is not true that the public views the terror war as some domestic policing operation and that terrorists should have legal protections. Nor do I believe that outside a small number of deluded cosmopolitans that it represents the opinion of the left.

However, the public does have legitimate concerns about civil rights and how they will be protected for the general public while we are fighting the terrorists.

It is one of the major failings of the Bush administration that it cannot satisfactorily resolve those concerns nor articulate them. The respond of the Bush administration to the challenges of terrorism has always been to give the government more power instead of simply doing a better job with the power it has. No doubt some additional power is needed to deal with the threat on hand, but the failure of the Bush administration to accept responsibility for its failings in a timely fashion, and more important to correct them, has undermined the war.

It is a very sad commentary that conservatives - after controlling the Executive, both houses of Legislature, appointing most of the Supreme Court, and major media organs (Fox News, talk radio, many popular blogs, and political magazines) - continue to blame powerless others for their own inability to achieve their aims.

If the public is not convinced, it's not because of the left's mastery of the subject, but because Bush is a poor communicator and a flawed leader.

Posted by: Chris Durnell at February 8, 2006 12:46 PM

Instapundit reports that John Bolton and Kenneth Timmerman have been nominated for Nobel Peace Prizes for their work in exposing Iran's weapons program, so maybe Bush has done something right.

Posted by: jdkelly at February 8, 2006 6:16 PM

jd:

Instapundit does indeed report that, but surely something is wrong there. Bolton for the Nobel Peace Prize? That's going to put a lot of satirists out of work.

Posted by: Peter B at February 8, 2006 7:41 PM
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