February 25, 2006

ALWAYS ROOM FOR ONE MORE

World population to hit 6.5 billion today (Nicholas van Rijn, Toronto Star, February 25th, 2006)

Thomas Malthus wouldn’t have known what to make of it.

At precisely 7:16 p.m. Eastern time today a woman somewhere in the world will give birth and bring the planet’s “official” population to 6.5 billion people, says the U.S. Census Bureau.

Malthus, the British economist who famously predicted in 1798 that the world’s population - then just under a billion - was growing so fast that people would soon be without enough to eat, wouldn’t have to look far to see tens of millions starving today in vast parts of Africa and other parts of the Third World.

But he’d have a hard time explaining the bounty and groaning tables common to the industrialized west and many other parts of the globe.

“The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man,” Malthus wrote.

Although he gave Charles Darwin the germ of the idea that led to the theory of evolution, Malthus might have wanted to spend a bit more time on this one.

“Malthus would be astonished not only at the numbers of people, but at the real prosperity of about a fifth of them, and the average prosperity of most of them,” demographer Joel Cohen told Wired News.

Has there ever in history been a more destructive idea than that people are liabilities, not assets?

Posted by Peter Burnet at February 25, 2006 7:06 AM
Comments

The shared ideas of Malthus/Darwin/Sanger/Hitler/Ehrlich have certainly done them no credit.

Posted by: oj at February 25, 2006 11:49 AM

"Has there ever in history been a more destructive idea than that people are liabilities, not assets?"

Yes. Law schools. And low-flow plumbing.

Steyn: "There's no such thing as "sustainable" development. Human progress and individual liberty have advanced on the backs of one unsustainable development after another: When we needed trees for heating and transportation, we chopped 'em down. Then we discovered oil, and the trees grew back. When the oil runs out, we won't notice because our SUVs will be powered by something else. Bet on human ingenuity every time... Earth's most valuable resource is us."

There's no such thing as "sustainable" development. Human progress and individual liberty have advanced on the backs of one unsustainable development after another: When we needed trees for heating and transportation, we chopped 'em down. Then we discovered oil, and the trees grew back. When the oil runs out, we won't notice because our SUVs will be powered by something else. Bet on human ingenuity every time... Earth's most valuable resource is us.

Posted by: Noel at February 25, 2006 11:56 AM

At precisely 7:16 p.m. Eastern time today a woman somewhere in the world will give birth and bring the planets official population to 6.5 billion people, says the U.S. Census Bureau.

Nice to have confirmation that the U.S. Census Bureau is full of crap.

Posted by: Matt Murphy at February 25, 2006 2:24 PM

Malthus wrote his essay on population in 1798, well before the Industrial Revolution was mature.
How was he supposed to predict chemical fertilizers, chemical pesticides and fungicides, preservatives, genetic engineering, electric water pumps, or tractors and other mechanical harvesters and ag equipment ?

I don't think that we can fault him for missing the paradigm shift - there are smart people who, 207 years later, in this forum, have argued that the Earth's carrying capacity is less than 60 billion, which is essentially an updated Malthusian position.
This despite them living in a society where technological advances and fixes are taken for granted.

Remember too that in Malthus' world, all work was done by humans, animals, or forces of nature.
All of those animals had to be fed, which took arable land out of production for human feed.
It wasn't until 110 years after Malthus' essay that automobiles began to replace horses and other draft animals in large numbers.

That eventually freed up 80 million acres in America for producing crops for humans, rather than for animal feed, and similarly around the world.
If we still had to feed billions of work animals, along with 6.5 billion humans, our diet would certainly contain less meat, and we'd probably not be able to afford to eat as many calories, either.

Finally, Peter, considering the differences in attitude that we've had in the past, it gladdens my heart to see you writing that pessimism is foolish, and by inference that unbridled optimism is better.

Posted by: Noam Chomsky at February 26, 2006 4:35 AM
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