MIRACLE ON ICE

Seismic shift in Quebec politics (Chantal Hebert, Toronto Star, January 19th, 2006)

For the first time in over a decade, it is once again politically correct to support the Conservatives in Central Canada. After a 13-year absence, the party has returned to the mainstream and, from all indications, it is there to stay.

But it goes beyond that. Quebec has been the scene of a dramatic shift, a sea change whose implications are still difficult to measure except to know that they are significant.

Consider the following:

This was never going to be a good year to run as a federal Liberal in Quebec. But if Quebecers had only wanted to punish Paul Martin for the failings of his party and his government, they would have stuck with the Bloc Quéébéécois.

Gilles Duceppe remains Quebec's most respected leader. He has run a campaign whose only fault to date has been its predictability. For his pains, he has recorded a double-digit loss in support since the election call. According to a CROP poll published this week, the Bloc could come out of the election with less than 40 per cent of the popular vote on Monday. In the Quebec City area, it has actually fallen behind the Conservatives.

Harper's surge in Quebec caught the Bloc completely off guard. It seems its counteroffensive was too late in coming to nip it in the bud.

That a leader from Alberta —— whose policies remain controversial in Quebec —— is the beneficiary of this turn-around makes it even more remarkable.

Earlier this week, Montreal's federalist daily La Presse, gave its unqualified editorial support to the Conservative party. La Presse has supported the Tories in the past, notably in the Mulroney era. But he was a Quebecer.

Since Pierre Trudeau, La Presse had always endorsed Quebec federalist leaders over non-Quebec ones.

Here is another measure of the magnitude of the Conservatives' psychological breakthrough in Quebec: At this point, Harper's Tories are more popular than Mario Dumont's Action déémocratique party. In francophone Quebec, they outrank Jean Charest's provincial Liberals. Suddenly, it pays for a Quebec leader to be associated with Harper.

Regardless of Monday's seat count in Quebec, this will have lasting consequences. For better or for worse, the Conservative party has for now become the federalist option of choice in Quebec.

The unexpected Conservative surge in English Canada can be explained rationally, but only divine intervention can explain this.