January 21, 2006


Bet on Tory minority: Stephen Harper's Conservatives look poised to topple Paul Martin's Liberals (ROBERT BENZIE, 1/21/06, Toronto Star)

Nationally, the Tories enjoy the support of 37.1 per cent of decided voters compared with 26.9 per cent for Paul Martin's Liberals, 19.5 per cent for the New Democrats of Jack Layton, 11.5 for the Bloc Québécois led by Gilles Duceppe and 4.6 for the Green Party led by Jim Harris. The undecided vote stood at 16 per cent.

The Conservatives have achieved success by increasing their support among older voters, men and more affluent Canadians, EKOS president Frank Graves said yesterday.

"The real story here is largely one of demographics and the intersection of values and interests with some of Canada's key groups of voters," Graves said.

A conservative party that has to fight to win mature secure men has had an awfully bad run.

Posted by Orrin Judd at January 21, 2006 7:30 AM

I am not optomistic about a Tory victory. As I've said before, these voters are Canadian.

Posted by: pchuck at January 21, 2006 10:17 AM

In the previous election that produced the minority, the socialist NDP won the lowest income brackets (including students), the Tories won the middle class, and the Liberals won the upper income brackets.

There's a strong tradition of patronage in Canadian government and industry that makes people want to be on the winning side.

Posted by: John Thacker at January 21, 2006 10:27 AM

What I find odd about this is that the Canadian media are actually admitting that the Conservatives are poised to win. If they took a cue from the US media, they'd interpret a 20-point lead for the right-of-center party as "too close to call, this race is tighter than the rusted lug nuts on a Chevy pickup" blah blah, in hopes of avoiding a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Posted by: Tom at January 22, 2006 9:20 AM