FUNNY HOW THE MYTHS ARE ALWAYS TRUER THAN THE REALISTIC SCENARIOS (via Pepys):

The myth that shapes Bush's world (Mark Helprin, January 15, 2006, LA Times)

THE PRESIDENT believes and often states, as if it were a self-evident truth, that "democracies are peaceful countries." This claim, which has been advanced in the past in regard to Christianity, socialism, Islam and ethical culture, is the postulate on which the foreign policy of the United States now rests. Balance of power, deterrence and punitive action have been abandoned in favor of a scheme to recast the political cultures of broad regions, something that would be difficult enough even with a flawless rationale because the power of even the most powerful country in the world is not adequate to transform the world at will.

Nor is the rationale flawless. It is possible to discover various statistical correlations among democracy and war and peace, depending on how they are defined and in what time frames. The chief pitfall in such social-science exercises is in weighing something such as, for example, the Mughal Campaign in Transoxiana, 1646-47, against something like, for example, World War II. Generally, a straightforward historical approach is better. And what does it show?

Even without reference to the case of a democracy that, finding self-defense insufficient justification and retaliation an insufficient end, makes war on a non-democracy so as to make the non-democracy a democracy, the postulate on which the president has in all good faith chosen to rely is contradicted by inconvenient fact.

The resistance to nation building and the preference for annihilatory war are perfectly understandable impulses, but the fact is that the last round of forcing democracy down peoples' throats did usher in a profound reduction in conflict.

Posted by Orrin Judd at January 15, 2006 7:10 PM