I hope Harper wins but he ain't no Maggie Thatcher. The Conservative Party in Canada is still pretty liberal.

I'm with OJ: There ain't no way the Quebecois will stand for a change in government that will leave more money in the Western Provinces. Ditto for the Citizens of Ontario. Martin and the CBC will make sure everyone understands this.

The evidence will be if Harper is elected.

I'm so vague on Canada. Are there more votes on the right or left coasts?

"Mr Harper will quickly become Mr. Bush's new best friend internationally and the poster boy for his ideal foreign leader. "

If by some miracle he's elected, the only poster he'd appear on would protray him as Chimpy McBushitler's incontinent poodle. CBC shows like This Hour has 22 Minutes and Royal Canadian Air Farce will find ways to be nastier to Harper than they have ever been with Bush. Which doesn't seem humanly possible, but they'll find a way. (Is there a law in Canada, like the content laws, that says that Rick Mercer must appear in half of what are labeled comedy shows on the CBC?)

I believe over a third of parliament comes from Ontario, which last time sent, what, like, two Conservatives to Parliament? Quebec didn't send any, because the Bloc is the all purpose Anti-Liberal party, and this will be an Anti-Liberal election, so they will actually have something to stand for besides separation. Add in the Maritimes and Territories dependence on subsidies and the welfare state (people who vote NDP because the Libs are too rightwing).You do the math...

any time i hear rick mercer and the kyoto one tonne challange i feel like burning some more drums of oil.......he is sniveling twit

Raoul:

I'm disappointed in you. You are usually much better informed. The Conservatives elected 24 in Ontario versus 75 for the Libs, but at least twenty to twenty-five they lost were very tight suburban ridings. I'm not holding my breath, but a Conservative minority government is definitely a possibility. If that happens, I will look forward to your warm congratulations and the big party at Orrin's house welcoming us back into the Anglosphere.

The only certainties are that the Conservatives will sweep Alberta, be blanked in Quebec and do lousy in urban Toronto and Vancouver.

Ptah:

As much as some around here are praying the Libs will do a huge oil or money grab on the West and "drive" them into a separatist frenzy, it ain't going to happen.

Okay, I stand corrected. That's what happens when you rely on memory instead of checking the facts. But still, I can't see the Conservatives getting 155 seats (that's a safety margin to account for the Speaker, vacancies, Belindas, etc..)

To me the real question is will the non-Quebec anti-Liberal vote go Left or Right. Not being up on the election laws, but in those close races, if that vote goes NDP while the Conservatives stay the same, the C's win, right? And how would that affect their choice of minority partners? C's + NDP seems to average out to the status quo but without the corruption, and that seems to be what the polls say Canadians want, but can the parties sell it and the voters buy it? Is this the Bloc's one chance to ever get a few Ministers, and how does having a party whose avowed purpose is to split the country (in multiple ways) change things when one of their own is the Minister for Silly Walks. This is intellectually entertaining even (or because) if it really doesn't affect me. (And I do miss Preston Manning and his "herniated cat voice." Now there'd been a PM as entertaining as Chretien.)

If Harper does win, El Gran Blanco Mexico del Norte will still be on probation, as all signs point to backsliding. (Because the Conservatives are just as much the Stupid Party as the GOP is here.)

I might add that, while Harper is ok and worthy of a shot, pchuck is right that he is no Maggie Thatcher or John Howard. Don't forget he's the guy who told Bush he couldn't back him on missile defence right then because, while he himself knew it was important and necessary, his internal party polls told him those wild and crazy Canucks wouldn't support it. I wish I'd been a fly on the wall to see Bush's reaction to that. Actually, I don't.

"Where is the evidence that Canadians aren't perfectly happy on their way to oblivion?"

The smart and talented ones have been extremely happy - on their way to the USA.

What is this "Canada" of which you speak?

BTW, Orrin, your crack the other day about Canadian governments falling in softwood lumber forests is being much savoured up here--even on the decent left.

We could put a stop to this farce. The real question is whther we want anything other than Alberta, and BC (because it is between Alberta and Alaska).

We can divide BC between the southern socialist section and the northern part which contains the oil and natural gas - and the Alaska connection.

Harper's good, but I'll agree that John Howard's more pro-American and more in position to act upon it.

The likely result come January 23rd is that the Conservatives will have a plurality of the seats, but far from a majority, and will need to work with either the BQ or the Liberals to patch together a majority.

We're still a few election cycles away, and probably Quebec independence, from a Conservative majority government in Canada. What we might get is a government that's a bit less statist and a bit less reflexively US-skeptic.

I'd also like Yukon please.