November 2, 2005
THE ANTI-JARVIS (via mc):
Colo. voters surrender $3.7B in Taxpayer's Bill of Rights (AP, 11/02/05)
Colorado voters agreed Tuesday to give up $3.7 billion in taxpayer refunds over the next five years to help the state bounce back from a recession, ignoring fiscal conservatives who argued that the government doesn't need more money to spend.The vote was closely watched in states around the nation. Californians are scheduled to vote on state spending limits Nov. 8, and Kansas, Ohio, Maine, Nevada, Oklahoma and Arizona are considering spending caps.
Supporters said Colorado simply could not afford to vote no, not with higher education, health care and transportation already suffering from millions of dollars in budget cuts.
"It was a tough election for all," said Republican Gov. Bill Owens, who stunned his own party by joining Democrats in crafting the measure. "Everyone cares for Colorado, and I understand why others feel differently."
Hard to believe now that Mr. Owens ever considered himself a potential Republican presidential candidate. Posted by Orrin Judd at November 2, 2005 2:48 PM
Yes, he's a putz.
Posted by: joe shropshire at November 2, 2005 3:19 PMThis what happens when you are too afraid to take on BIG ED.
Posted by: Bruno at November 2, 2005 4:08 PMVia Econopundit:
Ray has at last finished this quarter's updating, re-estimation, and re-running of Fairmodel. Here are some rather striking predictions from this quarter's Forecast Memo:
Real Growth and the Unemployment Rate: The predicted growth rates for the next four quarters are 5.2, 2.9, 2.3, and 2.2 percent, respectively. The unemployment rate at the end of 2006 is 4.6 percent. The jobs variable, JF, is predicted to increase in the four quarters by 2.7, 2.8, 2.4, and 2.0 percent, respectively. The reason for the large change in 2005:4 is a large predicted increase in inventory investment. In the last two quarters real final sales have grown more rapidly than real output, and the model is predicting a positive inventory correction.
Inflation: Inflation as measured by the growth of the GDP deflator (GDPD) is predicted to be 4.6 percent in 2005:4 and then 4.4, 4.4, and 4.3 percent in the next three quarters. These predicted values are higher than the actual values in the past few years and probably higher than most others are predicting. If the model is right, inflation is going to be a problem in the next year.
Monetary Policy: The estimated interest rate rule...is predicting that the three month bill rate (RS) will rise to 4.4 percent by the end of 2006.
Other Variables: The federal government budget deficit is predicted to be around $310 billion in the next four quarters (on a NIPA basis)...By the end of 2009 it is predicted to be $395.7 billion.
The U.S. current account deficit...is forecast to be around $790 billion in the next four quarters (on a NIPA basis), which is large by historical standards.
Whoa! Can you say -- in a deep dramatic voice -- BOOM!!!!!
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Timing is everything...............
Posted by: Sandy P at November 2, 2005 4:12 PMFools
Posted by: Robert Schwartz at November 3, 2005 12:43 AMOwens now has more in common with McGreevey and Mark Warner than with Arnold. Not a good place to be.
And are voters in CO (and around the nation) so blind as to not realize that state revenues began picking up in mid-2003? Fools is right for passing this turd.
Posted by: jim hamlen at November 3, 2005 9:23 AM