ONE OFF?:

Koizumi Reshuffles Cabinet, Drawing Lines for Succession Battle (Anthony Faiola, 11/01/05, Washington Post)

The reshuffle follows a landslide electoral victory for Koizumi in September that was widely interpreted as an endorsement of his crusade for bold economic reforms. Analysts said the new cabinet highlights the prime minister's desire to handpick an equally reformed-minded successor.

It also underscores Koizumi's competitive and trial-by-fire style, which has both shocked and captivated voters in a nation long accustomed to staid consensus politics. Indeed, Koizumi has suggested he will view the next several months as a period of battle among his potential successors, watching their performance so he can anoint the most competent.

"This is the administration to continue reform," Koizumi said at a news conference Monday evening. "Even after I leave in September of next year, I do not think that someone who diverges from Koizumi's reform policy will become the next prime minister." [...]

Much had been made during the September elections of Koizumi's promotion of female politicians -- particularly Environment Minister Yuriko Koike, who some had said could eventually become Japan's first female prime minister. But by deciding keep her in her current job, rather than give her a more prominent cabinet post, Koizumi appeared to cross her off the short list of possible successors. Koizumi did, however, name another woman -- Kuniko Inoguchi, a politics professor who was elected to the lower house in September -- as the new minister in charge of gender equality and the falling birthrate.

Seems unlikely there's anyone else as reformist as him in the party, which could make him Japan's Bill Clinton or Margaret Thatcher.

N.B.: Funny to note that last job title as folks on the Left pooh-pooh their own demographic implosion.

MORE:
Koizumi picks his field (Hisane Masaki , 11/02/05, Asia Times)

Before Monday's cabinet shuffle, Koizumi indicated he would let his potential successors compete for reform. His implicit message to them is: only a real and fully tested reformer is qualified to follow in his footsteps.

In announcing the new lineup, Abe, as new chief cabinet secretary, noted that the new cabinet members were experts in areas they had been appointed to oversee. "The new Koizumi cabinet is a business-first one. The direction of reform programs has already been set, and each minister will strive to implement them steadfastly."

Three reforms have emerged as top-priority tasks on the agenda - consolidation or even abolition of government-affiliated financial institutions, reduction in the bloated number of central and local government employees, and the so-called triune reform of local government finances.

The ultimate goal of these reforms is to make the central government leaner and more efficient amid the ballooning budget deficit. Japan's fiscal condition is already the worst among major industrialized economies. The total deficits held by the central and local governments are expected to reach about 774 trillion yen at the end of fiscal 2005.

Koizumi has vowed he would not raise the current 5% consumption tax rate while in office. But whoever becomes his successor will certainly have to grapple squarely with the unpopular and politically risky task of hiking the tax. The LDP pledged in a manifesto - or campaign platform - to make a sweeping reform of the tax system, including the consumption tax.

As a result, those being considered to take over the ministries primarily in charge of the three reforms are being closely watched. The Finance Ministry and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry are primarily responsible for reform of government-affiliated banks, and the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications looks after reform of the civil-servant system, as well as being primarily responsible, along with the Finance Ministry, for reform of local government finances.

In addition to these three posts, the health, labor and welfare minister's job is seen as more important than ever before as it entails rehabilitating the creaking social-security system, including pension, medical insurance and nursing-care insurance for the elderly - a pressing task for a government facing a rapidly aging society and declining birth rates.

The post of chief cabinet secretary is also important because its holder, often dubbed the "wife of a prime minister", is tasked with coordinating government policies involving multiple ministries and agencies.

Although reform plans for government-affiliated financial institutions have been broached many times in the past, they all ended up being shelved due to resistance from ministries, agencies and lawmakers concerned.

The aim of the postal-reform campaign is to ensure massive funds circulate within the private-sector economy to revitalize the nation's economy as a whole, while also restoring fiscal discipline.

The so-called triune reform of local government finances includes cuts in subsidies to local governments, transfer of tax-revenue sources to local governments and reform of tax grants to local governments to make up for shortfalls in fiscal revenue. The need for reductions in the number of government employees and resulting personnel costs as part of efforts to make the government leaner and more efficient has grown with the prospect of the nation's population beginning to decline as early as this year. The total number of central and local government employees is about 4 million.

Posted by Orrin Judd at November 1, 2005 7:12 AM