YOU AIN'T SEEN NOTHIN' YET:

Cynical Conservatism (Robert J. Samuelson, October 5, 2005, Washington Post)

George W. Bush entered the White House preaching "compassionate conservatism," but he may leave known for cynical conservatism. By this, I don't mean that his presidency will fail. The judgment of history, I suspect, will rest heavily on the outcomes of the struggle against terrorism and the war in Iraq, subjects about which I know no more than ordinary readers. For all the administration's miscalculations and setbacks, the ultimate results could still be more good than bad. But compassionate conservatism was never about foreign policy. It purported to be a new approach to governing at home that blended traditional values and modern sensibilities.

As a political pitch, it aimed to create a permanent Republican majority by convincing millions of centrists that conservatives had souls and that Bush himself was a new breed of moderate -- all the while without frightening the conservative Republican "base." As a governing philosophy, it suggested that Bush could pursue the goals of modern liberalism, helping the poor and promoting social justice, without forsaking the values of modern conservatism -- including individual responsibility and disciplined government. There was always an ambiguity about this brilliant phrase. Is compassionate conservatism (a) a genuine governing philosophy or (b) merely a clever sound bite?

Five years later, we know that the answer is (b). There is no obvious agenda that a successor could claim to follow as, for example, Lyndon Johnson claimed the Great Society followed the New Deal.

Mr Samuelson, normally quite good, is here quite wrong. Consider just five rather basic policies that flow naturally from the point George W. Bush has brought us to today:

(1) Privatization of Social Security--the President, even if he gets a reform package, will not achieve full privatization on his watch.

(2) Private Vouchers for NCLB --the President duped Ted Kennedy and company into accepting public vouchers but the future lies in fully voucherizing education dollars and letting parents decide where to spend them. Mr. Bush's Australian counterpart has gotten ahead of us here

(3) Mandatory Health Care Coverage--the President got HSAs included in the Medicare drug bill--which brings market forces to bear on what otherwise would have been an all-government program--and these will form the basis for what will eventually be a requirement that all American maintain some minimal level of health coverage throughout their entire lives.

(4) Privatized Unemployment Insurance--no American president or candidate has yet raised what will eventually be another reform we adopt on which Chile has blazed a trail.

(5) Consumption Tax: and of course the fight is not yet engaged, much less won, for one of the key elements of the President's Neoconomics, a switch from income taxes to consumption taxes.

If John McCain doesn't run on one or all of these in 2008, Jeb Bush certainly will in 2012.

Posted by Orrin Judd at October 5, 2005 12:12 PM