October 15, 2005

STILL HOPE FOR ALBERTO YET:

Split on Right a Chance, Choice for Democrats: Fate of Miers Vote Held in the Balance (Charles Babington, 10/15/05, Washington Post)

The conservatives' noisy split over the Harriet Miers Supreme Court nomination has largely obscured the fact that Senate Democrats could control her fate in a way that was never possible in the confirmation battle over Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr.

While the turmoil on the right offers Democrats a tantalizing opportunity, party strategists said, it also will confront them with a difficult choice: Confirm a conservative with close ties to President Bush, or oppose her and join ranks with hard-right activists who historically are their archenemies. [...]

The strategy for now is "to not interrupt the argument that's going on in the Republican camp," said Joel P. Johnson, a lobbyist and former Clinton administration aide with close ties to Democratic senators. "But as we get closer to the hearings, and if this thing moves to a confirmation vote, I think it's going to begin to occur to people that this person who is completely devoted to the president is not very likely to let the president down."

Such a conclusion, he said, would incline most Democrats to vote against Miers. Asked whether they might feel uneasy siding with conservative writers George F. Will, Charles Krauthammer and others calling for Miers's rejection, Johnson said: "Not a bit. I think senators understand that it takes strange bedfellows to pass things and strange bedfellows to kill things. And they're quite comfortable with that."

Jim Jordan, a former presidential campaign manager for Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.), agrees that Democrats will have plenty of reasons to oppose Miers, but he said some worry that Bush might replace her with a more forceful and effective conservative. "Even though she's undoubtedly a mediocrity," he said, "philosophically she's probably the best they [Democrats] can do."

Jordan added: "If the Republicans splinter, as looks likely now, the Democratic caucus will be in the bizarre position of having to decide whether to bail Bush out." The choice will not be easy, he said. "From a purely political standpoint, they'll have to decide whether to add to his humiliation," Jordan said. A Miers rejection, however, would allow Bush "a do-over" that could improve his relations with his conservative base.

The initial Democratic reaction to Miers's nomination has been muted and unfocused. Some senators have questioned her qualifications, but Minority Leader Harry M. Reid (Nev.) surprised colleagues by saying he had urged Bush to consider Miers for the post. The day after Bush tapped her, Reid said in a speech, "I am very impressed by what I know about Harriet Miers."


The notion that President Bush would respond to these guys blocking his nominee buy giving them one they want is just risible. Stop her, get Gonzales.

Posted by Orrin Judd at October 15, 2005 8:50 PM
Comments

This has become tiresome. Does anyone seriously believe that the Republican Senators are going to "splinter" over this? Give me a break. They're going to keep making the noises they've been making to appease the party activists, and will all vote yes.

Posted by: b at October 15, 2005 10:45 PM

Don't forget the third choice for those people: get drawn in to the killing zone which has been set up for them by opposing a nominee chiefly of grounds of religion..

Posted by: Lou Gots at October 15, 2005 11:11 PM

"Stop her, get Gonzales."

What better way to p*ss off the rest of the base?

Posted by: curt at October 15, 2005 11:31 PM

If she fails to be confirmed, Janice Rogers Brown will be nominated. The base will be thrilled, and the Rats will have to oppose a black woman, assuring more Republican votes from this minority, even if it's just a percent or two - enough to make a difference in some elections.

Posted by: obc at October 15, 2005 11:45 PM

obc: why do you think only the Rats will have to oppose JRB? I can assure you that at least 10 Reps will give them cover (Snowe, Collins, Chaffee, McCain, Warner, Hagel, Graham, Specter, DeWine, and Voinovich).

Posted by: sam at October 15, 2005 11:57 PM

Also, the minority vote would not change a bit. It didn't by the nomination of Clarence Thomas, did it? Or Condi Rice? Or Colin Powell?

Posted by: sam at October 15, 2005 11:58 PM

sam:

The Latino vote isn't as lopsided as the Black vote, so there's more to work with in terms of outreach.

Also, the Black vote has generational differences - GenX and Millenial blacks are much more likely to consider voting for Republican candidates, and if the GOP keeps up their outreach, one out of three black kids still in grade school might end up being consistent GOP voters.

Outreach is mostly about setting the stage for the future, not about attempting to convert middle-aged voters.

Posted by: Michael Herdegen [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 16, 2005 1:43 AM

The next Bush nominee will be Gonzales.

Posted by: jd watson [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 16, 2005 5:53 AM

"Even though she's undoubtedly a mediocrity," he said, "philosophically she's probably the best they [Democrats] can do."

John Kerry -- and he should know!

Too funny! I can't believe he said that; sounds like something Gore would say.

Posted by: Genecis at October 16, 2005 8:20 AM

The base won't accept Brown--she's too libertarian.

Posted by: oj at October 16, 2005 9:37 AM

Miers will be confirmed. If she is not, I doubt if this President will reward the noisy right by naming anyone on their wish list. It will be either a politician (Sen. Cronyn)or a "non-crony" minority. A Latina judge like Connie Callahan would be perfect.

I doubt it would be the Attorney General. Many of the same problems as Miers. However, if it is so be it. The noisy right would deserve it for their gross stupidity.

Posted by: Bob at October 16, 2005 9:56 AM

I emailed a friend the other day that, between low approval numbers and the Miers nomination, I was back to checking Rasmussen every day -- a bad habit I broke after the election. He was no help at all -- he replied that I need to also be checking Tradesports. A contract on Miers confirmation is now trading at 68%.

Posted by: David Cohen at October 16, 2005 11:08 AM

Sounds like easy money to me - the chances of her being confirmed have to be at least 90%.

Posted by: Michael Herdegen [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 16, 2005 2:23 PM
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