STATURESQUE:

The IAEA's new clout (Kaveh L Afrasiabi, 10/13/05, Asia Times)

The Nobel award to ElBaradei is likely to increase his margin of independence and maneuverability - particularly with respect to the pressure applied by the US and to a lesser extent by the European Union - to commit the IAEA to take the next logical step and refer Iran to the UN Security Council.

So far, ElBaradei has resisted this idea, arguing that there is still a window of opportunity to resolve the matter within the IAEA and through the Iran-EU talks. Hence, recalling how the Bush administration reluctantly consented to the extension of ElBaradei's tenure in light of his knack for independence, the 2005 Nobel Peace recipient is now better positioned to dictate his map of action vis-a-vis the Iranian nuclear issue, depending, in part, on Iran's willingness to show more flexibility.

In the absence of a perceived Iranian flexibility, on the other hand, ElBaradei can conceivably utilize his enhanced stature to exert more pressure on Iran and, perhaps, even resort to the stick of Security Council action.

This does not bode well for Iran, which has been very critical of the IAEA, and now has to contend with a much-strengthened body showered with global accolades through the Nobel prize. No matter what, in the current ongoing IAEA-Iran negotiations, the Nobel Prize has tipped the balance in favor of the former and somewhat weakened the Iranian hand.

Even the punditocracy had to figure out eventually that the Prize is good for us.

Posted by Orrin Judd at October 12, 2005 8:53 AM