REDEAL:

Bush's second-term blues: His woes fit a historical pattern that also shows presidents can recover. (Linda Feldmann, 10/21/05, The Christian Science Monitor)

If President Bush is looking for ways to salvage his second term, he need look no further than the most recent two-term presidents for examples - and even comfort.

In Ronald Reagan's second term, the Iran-contra scandal dominated headlines, but he still enacted tax reform and took major steps toward rapprochement with the Soviet Union.

Bill Clinton's signal second-term achievement, perhaps, was surviving impeachment. But he also honed his skills as a peacemaker in Bosnia and Northern Ireland, and presided over record economic growth.

The primary lesson from both, analysts say, is simply to soldier on in the face of adversity. [...]

"The fact that Bush is maintaining 80 to 84 percent approval of Republicans even in these very difficult times I think is a terrific story," GOP pollster Bill McInturff told a Monitor breakfast on Wednesday. [...]

Second terms also tend to benefit from personnel changes at the White House .

The point, presidential observers say, is to bring in new people with fresh ideas and energy. Given the long hours - predawn until after dusk - White House jobs can lead to burnout; before Bush, the average tenure was 18 months.

Andrew Card, Bush's chief of staff since day one, now holds the modern record for longevity in that post, a testament to his performance as an administrator and the mutual loyalty he and Bush share. Indeed, Bush's premium on loyalty has kept many staffers by his side. Others have been given Cabinet-level jobs, and Card is rumored as a possible next secretary of the Treasury.

Leon Panetta, the second of Clinton's four chiefs of staff, sees personnel changes as key to reviving Bush's presidency - and not just reassigning or promoting people from within, but bringing in outsiders.

"People start doing it by the numbers. They don't have that kind of excitement you had in the first term, dealing with issues, dealing with the country," says Mr. Panetta, now in California running the public policy institute he founded.

When the Iran-Contra scandal broke under Reagan, launching a far-reaching investigation into operations throughout his administration, he brought in a new chief of staff, former Republican Senate leader Howard Baker. "I think it paid off for [Reagan]," says Panetta.

Bush has more than three years left in the White House, which gives him plenty of time to clear today's hurdles.

Saw an interesting number the other day, when the President reached his new "lowest point ever in the polls" it was a rather high low point for a modern president. Andy Card can leave gracefully to run for Mitt Romney's job in MA, which he's known to covet and the President can bring in someone like Marc Racicot or one of the other ex-governors as his new Chief. Five years is probably too long on that job.

Posted by Orrin Judd at October 20, 2005 6:23 PM